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Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 October 2015

Monday, October 5, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 October 2015

Yay, I'm back from travelling! No more crappy connections and compatibility problems.

The top wave count is that the market is in Minor wave 2 up.  Today was a very strong day internally which supports the notion that a new structure (minor 2) is now in development. I realize the other indices do not have a 5 wave structure down but the most important index (my opinion) is that the Wilshire 5000 does display 5 clear waves down.

The general thinking is that Minor wave 2 will eventually carry at least a Fibonacci 61.8% back from peak. I actually expect it to eventually reach a bit more than 61.8% retrace.  We shall see, its been a bumpy market.
Wilshire weekly has very cool trendlines. That lower black channel line did indeed contain prices.
And of course the GDOW also displays 5 waves down and the best count has it in a wave 2 rebound.

Friday, October 2, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 October 2015

No firm conviction either way short term. There are at least 5 waves down in the Wilshire 5000.  See the last post for the chart. The subdivisions of Minute [v] of Minor 1 down does not count well as yet complete.  However, its good enough if that's the case.

I'm on travel through Friday and have technical issues posting charts perhaps due to limited connectivity and bandwidth.

But I suspect its just trying to use Windows 8.1 10  "Edge" browser with Google BlogSpot which I don't ever do.  And I suspect they make it broken on purpose of course. I have no time to work through the issues. Will do so tomorrow sorry got to run!

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 September 2015

We have 5 waves down in the Wilshire5000 which, in my opinion, is the most i,important wave count chart in use. The count would look better if a few more subdivisions played out to finish wave [v] of 1.

Monday, September 28, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 September 2015

On the 18th of September's update it was suggested that the top wave counts both pointed to prices continuing to the downside after the Fed reversal. We even had an ending diagonal pattern with the 2020 intraday SPX peak. The subsequent price decline has not disappointed.

Since that time, it has been decided to switch counts from the 2020 high as being a Minute wave [iv] of Minor 1 peak instead of Minor 2 price peak. That may or may not be the case depending on what the market continues to do and any potential further degree of selling pressure.

The only requirement is that the indices make lower lows under the 24 August lows. That has already happened on the GDOW for instance. The Wilshire 5000 is close also. The SP 500 is close.
So far the subwaves since the 2020 rebound peak do not yet count as 5 waves down.
Wilshire 5000 daily. Note that the last wave up to wave (5) at the summer peak is labeled as an ending diagonal triangle pattern which usually suggests that prices will retrace to the start of the pattern - red (4) - very quickly due to exhaustion.  Prices are sitting on a support shelf and if that breaks, perhaps some panic selling will ensue and the downside initial target of 19160 will be reached at the very least..
Weekly: Almost to the black lower channel line.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 September 2015

We got a rebound that we expected in last night's update. Is it over short term or will we get more. The wave structure allows for another push although we cannot expect it.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 September 2015

The market has dropped from a Fed peak of 2020 SPX to today's low of 1908 in a very nice 5 wave structure down.  A rebound is probably due and the wave structure supports it.  The open gap down at 1961 - 1967 SPX from a few days ago (see chart below) would be a good target.
Our weekly GLOBAL DOW chart has a very nice 5 wave pattern down from near its peak.  This is a favorite chart and gives the closest indication of total worldwide wave structure combined which is so important nowadays because the world is very much connected in a social mood sense.