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Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 January 2019

As was posted, the wave count has problems for the bearish overall case. Waves 1 and 4 overlap and the proposed wave 3 down has ugly internal structures for a supposed impulse wave. This need not be bothered too much as long as we get one more push down very soon to a lower low to create an overall 5 wave impulse verifying that the overall direction is now down for the longer term. However, the market has yet to cooperate for the bearish overall count.
So what would the overall count be since the 2009 low if we had eventual higher market highs? I present the count below. This still is a valid count (and in some ways a better count than with the market top occurring in 2018) and follows all the rules and guidelines of Elliott Wave Theory. Note the alternation between corresponding corrective waves:

Waves 2 and 4 (blue) of (1) alternate in form from zig-zag to flat.
Waves (2) and (4) (red) alternate in form from flat to zig-zag.
Waves 2 and 4 (blue) of (3) (red) alternate in form from flat to zig-zag.
Waves [ii] and [iv] (green) of 5 of (3) alternate in form from flat to triangle.
Bottom line: We need a market downturn very fast to lower lows for the bearish case to bear fruit as presented in the top chart. Unless and until that happens we must be vigilant for a bullish count toward higher highs presented in the lower chart.

Monday, January 14, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 January 2019

Wave pattern is not ideal - there is overlap of wave [iv] and [i].  The down channel is intact for now. Sorry I haven't been posting lately there was a death in my family and I just had no energy to post.

Friday, December 28, 2018

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Monday, December 17, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 December 2018

Breaking through to the downside and a close below.
Weekly standard RSI hasn't been oversold since 2011. We've been overbought 11 times since then. Its probably overdue.

Friday, December 14, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 December 2018

Updated primary count:
Again, if this is a wave (iii) of [iii] down, the wave structure predicts it will be a panic selling moment soon enough.
3 month yield still way ahead of Fed rate. They will be forced to raise again if this keeps up.
Barely a dip from the highs and France is already rioting. Social mood is in a precarious state worldwide.
The wave count for gold calls for an eventual thrust in prices higher.