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Thursday, July 28, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 28 July 2016

The narrow range held again today

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 27 July 2016

Interesting short term chart suggests a consolidation and pop higher. Not sure of the wave degree labels thats not important at the moment. But its interesting to note that Wilshire prices are not above the June 2015 high. (the Wilshire did squeak a new high recently in 2016 though) They are trying to pop over and breakout.  The wave count suggests it will happen at least for the short term.
This weekly gives you an idea of the resistance the total market is up against. The odds are in favor that it will indeed pop over resistance. And then it could run a bit more for sure.
Which implies this long term count below - which is Robert Prechter's primary count of Elliott Wave International (click my links to the left for free material if you become a club member - also free!) would pan out.

So around election time or maybe inauguration time (pick your conspiracy theory if you like!) they collapse the markets. Well anyway, the count would be due to reverse. Its been a tremendous rise since 2009.  It will be a speculator decline.
Yet its interesting the amount of disconnect between major US indices and other indices. So things are at a crossroads.
For instance the GDOW count - by Elliott Wave rule - cannot be in a wave 5 higher of any degree. So this gives serious pause to the idea of the markets drifting higher for a few months more as shown in the monthly Wilshire above.
30 Year:
6 month count. Major yield inversion coming?

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 26 July 2016

Its my birthday. Just glad to be here another year. My advice: Don't wish your life away like that movie "Click".

Looks like some kind of wave 4 developing and it will pop higher.

Monday, July 25, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 25 July 2016

We expect another push upwards. The wave since (2) does not count complete yet.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 21 July 2016

GDOW is significant in that the wave [A] peak has been breeched by the recent downturn marked at 2033 labeled (1) down. So by Elliott Wave rule, the GDOW primary count cannot be a wave 5 of any degree going to new highs.  It would have to be something else. This is why we should pause on the counts for now.
The same overlap does not exist on the NYSE yet it is still lagging badly. yet the count allows for an alternate that it can make a new high and then we would probably label it as a large 5 wave move since its 2009 low.
A curious pattern in the DJIA. We'll keep an eye on it.
Everybody talks of a breakout but the "total" market - Wilshire 5000 - is back beneath its 2015 highs. Yet the Wilshire rise since the low earlier this year is an unsatisfying count at the moment.  It cannot be resolved neatly in its current form unless my wave labels of (1) and (2) are accurate which implies a whole lot more rallying will occur the rest of this year. In any case, there is more work to be done probably to resolve things one way or another. 

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 20 July 2016

The Wilshire finally took out its 2015 high today. If we align the count with Robert Prechter's primary Dow count of a cycle wave taking place this is what the count would look like. I hesitate because sentiment is very high at the moment and a decent correction is due.

This count infers much more price advance over the coming months which very well could happen but I'd like to see how sentiment and price shakes over the next few days/weeks out first. Then we'll go from there.
A major reason is that key sub-indices have yet to even take out there highs including the NASDAQ100, the Global Dow and the NYSE composite. So there is a significant negative divergence going on.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 19 July 2016

Almost there
GDOW has no yet taken out its 18 April high. The count would look really good if it did which I suspect it will.