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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

50/200MA Hourly Crossover and APEX Tuesday

Two things on this chart:
1. The 50/200 crossover on the hourly chart really can only be stopped by an immediate hard down move starting tomorrow. A crossover of the 50/200 of course would be bullish. That usually results in a pop at least.
2. Tuesday marks the end of the apex for the SPX (and DOW). The NASDAQ APEX marked its LOW a week or so ago. Perhaps this APEX will mark a significant HIGH.

Elliott Wave Principle, page 52"..we propose that often the time at which the boundary lines of a contracting triangle reach an apex coincides with a turning point in the market. Perhaps the frequency would justify its inclusion among the guidelines associated with the Wave Principle."

So there you have it: You have an APEX peak occurring tomorrow. You have the threat of a 50/200 crossover. In order for this NOT to happen, a severe down move would be required. Also you have pre-OPEX Wednesday, which is the fun day for bears on OPEX week it seems. You have a stretched market that, quite frankly, probably could use a healthy correction to keep things real. You have negative divergences on the 30,60 minute charts.

If a severe correction does not occur tomorrow, well, then I will be surely stopped out on a (second) helping of FAZ as of late (I sold premarket today - and bought back in this afternoon - and doubled down at end of day.) Its the only trade I have at the moment. Busy this week at my 9-5 job and cannot monitor things too well.

PS - I often watch wave moves using the NASDAQ website. They show premarket waves in real time. It works well for timing premarket sales (or buys). More often than not, premarket traces VERY clear and simple EW patterns. Try it sometime. Anyways I seen a wave 5 to peak over $43 occur in premarket so - I sold.

Just something i always wanted to point out. The NASDAQ website is good for wave trading during the day, real time, for any stock or ETF...


  1. Hi Dan,

    thanks again for the good work, I appreciate the reference to the Elliot Wave Principle you give to ground your argumentation...Nevertheless, pagination has changed with printing version. the reference noted p52 is p51 in my version (1999 edition). It could be indeed helpfull to refer to the chapter and section as well to make the cross correlation easier ;)

    in this case it is Part 1 , chapter 1 section 'horizontal triangle'.

  2. Dan,

    Is there a reason, you are making this assessment on the 60min chart, when the 10, 15, and 30 charts already show them crossing?


  3. Thanks Dan...looks like your "hard down" at the open is playing out for now. What's your TI setup for the premarket chart on Nasdaq with Faz?

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