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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 March



It appears the front half of the expected 5-3-5 zig zag had peaked or will shortly tomorrow. The corrective three already appears to be playing out. It can evolve it a zig zag, triangle or flat of some kind. After the corrective connecting "three", the next half of the zig zag should play out to a peak price for wave 4(5).
We have all seen these kinds of moves off an oversold bottom in October and November at several places. And they all basically play out the same way: Bullish "A" wave to a near term peak, pullback, typically shallow retrace, 24-45% for the B wave, then another 5 wave move (C wave) to peak that usually takes longer and is more labored because initial bullishness is gone, profit taking and resistance layers come into play. Eventually at the top it displays some kind of negative divergence and can even take the form of a big rising wedge which we all know as bearish. Then it rolls over and we are on our way down again in some form or another. From there we reevaluate everything again....
Does it have to play out this way? Sooner or later it might not, but we'll play the odds. On any kind of B wave retrace for this move up, down volume shouldn't be too terribly scary although the bears might try and chop it down and get things rolling downside again. Failed zig zags I think have happened in this bear market but don't count this move as done just yet. Volume, once again, tells the story.
The 734 gap didn't quite close as also there is a slight cash index gap left at 752.



7 comments:

  1. Dan,

    Looks like a small Head and Shoulders top in the emini futures. Neckline support looks to be at 713. Also I noticed on the ISE that Sentiment Index closed at 297 for the Indices. The last time it closed way above 200 and the S&P 500 was up 2 days in a row was on 8/28/08 which was followed by a rather substantial drop. Now that doesn't mean it will happen this time but it's something to be aware of.

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  2. excellent work, is it possible we have already topped at 730, and other waves go lower.

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  3. Dan,

    I really appreciate the work you do. I have learned so much from you. If it wasn't for your charts and your very thorough explanations I would have quit this endevour a long time ago.

    I have made some mistakes not following your charts closely enough but I am above water a little bit so far YTD. I guess that could be considered good in as much as the overall market is down 20+% YTD.

    Thanks again, if I make some serious profits going forward and I do not screw up too much I will definitely be making regular contributions.

    Thanks again,

    FastEddie

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  5. Good stuff Dan. I was going to say something about H&Ss but decided not to.

    This could really be a March to beware it's Ides, couldn't it?

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  6. Thanks Fast Eddie!

    GBT: Yeah the H&S is a big one

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