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Monday, March 16, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 March


Today marked the wave 4(5) high. The NASDAQ violated several spots that have been "accepted" as the wave 1(5) low which is a strict rule violation. However, the NASDAQ traced a wave (4) triangle so I am not sure if there is even a wave 1(5) low to violate. As I said before in other posts, its also possible to label wave 1(5) in the NASDAQ at 1456 which was in no danger of being violated. For now, I am ok with it because I was willing for a week to relabel wave 1(5) low at the 1456 spot.
The wave structure down was very impulsive. The NASDAQ led the way. Very clean down impulses. Even the subwaves had 5 wave structures subwaves within which is very positive for this being 5(5). In addition, you can already see a 1.618 Fib expansion on my NASDAQ 1 minute chart. That too is a good sign of impulsivness to the downside. Also everything channeled nicely.
My VIX chart I posted this weekend held up well. the VIX was up even as the market was up. Its on track to hit my VIX "e" wave at 50+. Also the CPC got to a very low point and was consistent with where I expected a wave 4(5) top. My 5 EMA CPC chart is turning back upwards. Another chart I posted this weekend was a Banking Index extended wave (3) chart and it too held up. Its previous sub wave 4 high held so that also is in line with continuing to new lows.
So all in all, except for the NASDAQ and the problems it creates, it appears to be impulsing down for wave 5(5). I am unable to check futures volume at this time so I don't have a good read on down volume candles as compared to up. But either way, down volume should pick up once 750 support breaks. At the very least, a 38% Fib pullback would be around 733 SPX. 730-734 represents a major support area as does 742.


13 comments:

  1. You and Kenny ROCK!

    mark090709

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  2. Thanks for doing this -- Your work is the best Elliott wave analysis I've found, including the pay services.

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  3. Get Kenny with the program so I won't be torn between the two scenarios!!! ;-)

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  4. Kenny expects a huge pullback so it don;t matter anyways. We both got it heade in the same direction - huge down

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  5. So is ABC for 4 of (5) with this move down being "b" out of the picture now or still valid?

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  6. Same question here: Is 4 of 5 over is did we just complete A of 4 of 5?

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  7. 4(5) is over. If the market takes out today's 774 high, then its not 4(5), its likely primary 2 and the 666 low will hold for quite some time.

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  8. Daneric, for 4(5) to be over, are you saying it should not violates [iv], or the bottom of 1(5)? Thanks.

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  9. Dan, are you still holding FAZ? If u r, what's your target? TIA..

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  10. Dan, curious as to why so many folks are dismissing an A of 4 of (5) just wrapping up with a B starting today. I see 5 possible impulse waves up from 666 which could be a long A. Factor in as well that many minor wave correctives take a few weeks to wrap. What's the rationale for calling 4(5) or P1 over without considering the above?

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  11. JohnnyBlue:

    Wave 2(5) was a sideways correction (and lengthy), Wave 4(5) can be a sharp correction which fulfills the guideline of alternation between 2 corrective wave sin the same structure. So once it hits its price peak, tahts it. Any more price peak and that would invalidate a 5(5)

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  12. Dan:

    S&P took out the 774 high you referred to above, and closed at 778.12. Are you sure yet that P1 is over and that P2 is under way? I thought I read you saying 800 area was required to make P2 definite. If this is P2, can you please explain why you (and Kenny) think 1000 is the likely top for P2?

    Thanks.

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