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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 March

Wave 4(5) is a dead idea. This is Primary 2. My bullish scenario chart I posted last night pretty much happened although it happened rather quickly to say the least. The inverted H&S target has been met. It appears the last subwave to peak is required to play out to call this initital up a finished five wave move.

In theory it should then retrace to at least 38% to major support at 750. If any retrace backwards is a wave 2 down of some sort or even a B wave, potential exists for a deeper retrace although I wouldn't bet the farm on it. But 750 is reasonable considering this is first challenge of the 800 resistance. But this is no ordinary bear rally. This is a Primary 2 wave rally.

People are anxious to buy back in. I have confirmed this informally at my work. Major resistance was just broke at 780 so holding onto that zone, for now, is a bullish objective. The other bullish objective is the massive gap at 819-826. I am satisfied with the count and chart. Now we'll see how it plays out.


23 comments:

  1. Since this is primary wave 2 now, do you think we will fill the gap before we retrace? This rally seems way too bullish (for whatever BS reasons), and I am starting to really feel squeezed...666 need to be broken and it is just not a good number in general...Thanks for all your hard work Dan....

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  2. If my count is correct, no we shouldn;t fill the gap. However bullish waves can extend in any number of ways and that would imply my count is incorrect. However it *looks* right.

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  3. Dan,

    Good work!

    Thanks.

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  4. Wave 4 (5) may still be in play if you look a monthly chart and use fractal counting to confirm Waves as researched by Jack Williams. Wave 4 (5) could rise anywhere between 850 and 960 which would then be followed by the real 5 (5).

    I would suggest anyone into EWT read his research on the subject.

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  5. Nice call dano.........gotta play it now.oh the money finally was sent...kli

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  6. People are anxious to buy back in. I have confirmed this informally at my work
    ------------

    Funny thing, so far I have been hearing from my co-workers (non stock type people) that they were just not opening their 401k statements and would wait it all out.

    For the first time today I heard some "water cooler talk" and a few of them were saying they wanted their money out now and were going to stash it "under the mattress" so they would at least have something when they retired. This was this morning before the rally.

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  7. Hi Dan, My BKX target $30 has hit today, I sold out C, BAC and Fas today, I still have SKF ( the gain from the other will let me hold it until $50).
    Do you think we are due for correction or you expecting the market to kepp going up? any target in mine. Thanks.

    TD.

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  8. I find it very funny that it stopped 1 point short of the wave 1 low on the spx. Figured the MM's would part it there at the close just to tease us but they let me down.

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  9. Tough dady the real resistance of 800 area is now coming into play. So I would expect some pullback and consolidation.

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  10. I thought Wave 2 as a rule should retrace 50% of the move of Wave 1?

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  11. Is FAZ hold or sell now for loss?

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  12. Well, if 4(5) is over... where did 5(5) go?

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  13. thx Dan... will it pullback tomorrow?

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  14. ---Well, if 4(5) is over... where did 5(5) go?---
    exactly. it is not even truncated or failed...

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  15. I'm a fan of Elliott Waves, but one frustrating part is that the wave counts can be "modified" after the fact to make the counts work. That's the case this time too. Labels can be placed to show all necessary waves to show primary 1 wave is complete.

    In answer to one of the other anonymous posts wave 2 likely will retrace 50% of wave 1. Wave 2 will likely last for 4-6 months (remember that wave 1 lasted 17 months).

    I'm targeting 10,000 on the Dow or just above it in the fall of the year (October is popular for drops in the market). Get everyone excited about breaking 10,000 again and then pull the rug out for wave 3 which will be devastating.

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  16. Dan, a question. Not to stir up the "could this still be 4 of 5 of 5" debate again, but wave 1 bottomed at 804 and change. Today we topped out at 803 and change. So we didn't technically violate above the bottom of wave 1. Am I missing something? I realize that the Nasdaq broke the rule but does that mean if one index does, they all do? I personally feel we bottomed but this is just a curiosity question. Thanks for all of your hard work.

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  17. I cannot believe how bullish everyone has gotten.. Are there any fears out there that there will be 600k job loss for this month...+ commercial real estate starting to collapse.. or a continued week consumer...

    OUR ECONOMY CANNOT BE FIXED IN A MATTER OF 10 DAYS.

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  18. Book'em Dano. keep up the good work

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  19. Before you getting bullish on stocks watch this video

    Part 1
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0zEXdDO5...

    Part2
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYhDkZjKB...

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  20. Iggy, too many TA indicators and other common sense stuff means 666 is the low for a while.

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  21. where do you see minor 2 starting out? do you think its at 805 or 830? and whats the minimal it goes down? 50% fib around 730's? trying to decide when to start a short position.

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  22. Daneric, wow. I just found myself chewing up a huge bite of chit sandwich the last two days with SKF at 139.40. I am really new and quite naive on how or where I ended up here in Bear Land but I am interested to learn more. My e-mail is Markdkorman@yahoo.com if you had any thoughts for me this p.m. Thanks, nice work.

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  23. Thanks, you have a friend in the diamond business: http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009-03-18_spx.png

    Very similar analysis...great chart today, thanks.

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