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Thursday, March 19, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 March






Primary count: Continued bullishness until at least the 819-826 gap is closed.

Alternate count: A 5 wave pattern completed today and a distribution pattern is playing out and the market is rolling over.


Discusssion:

Primary count: The 1 minute chart today appears to be 3's which implies correctives and consolidation (although it has an outside shot of forming a bearish leading diagonal in a first wave postion down - but its way too soon to say that) From afar it also appears to be a falling wedge or a classic bull flag forming (with the 749 low as the base).


The waves can be counted as "finished" afterall everyone can see a nice 5 wave structure. But to a wave-guy like me it just doesn't seem quite right to count 803 as the peak at this stage. The wave appears to have classive extension signs of its 3rd wave which is normal for a bullish wave such as this. The bullish spike to 800 Wednesday *appears* to be part of a third wave push. Volume declined today on the pullback which is a sign of consolidation.


Yes the market is really insane, but this is no ordinary bear rally. If this is a Primary wave 2 which I think it is, it tends to crush all bears on the first push. Indeed it already has. Each day brings little pieces of the puzzle and I don't feel too silly projecting this up structure because it is based on sound wave counting. As a wave counter, I am taught to start trying to identify extended structures as early as possible. My green [iii] spot is a 1.618 expansion of my green [1] which would be 819 which is just under the gap lip. A green [v] would close the gap to the 830's or a bit beyond.


Yes it seems insane to get more relentless bull but its at least sound reasoning based on accepted EW principles and counting techniques.


Alternate Count: I can count a 5 wave structure. It may be rolling over in a distribution pattern. The key is if 775 gets smashed through to the downside I think.





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