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Friday, March 20, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 March

The market likes to fool us. When it impulses down like it did last week for a pullback, it reverses hard. When it meanders at the top in corrective waves, you might think there is more bull to come. But alas, it was a likely distribution pattern playing out.

774 support area broke and backtested from underneath and fell back yet again. The retrace is deep enough to confirm wave 1 up (or A) has topped at 803 resistance. I look for a H&S pattern to perhaps form. The move down from peak appears to be a 5-3-5 zig zag playing out and the initial first half 5 waves maybe are not quite finished. Then a B wave should play out in some fashion. This B wave would likely form some kind of right shoulder, even a weak one. Then any break of the Head & Shoudler neckline will set the downside target for the C wave to near term low for wave 2. Thats about as simple as I can get.

The weekly candle is a shooting star, so that suggest 803 will not be breeched next week.


  1. Dan, Thanks!

    Are you holding any shorts? If yes at what point are you looking to get out? 750 area or you will wait close to 730-735?

  2. dan, you're on the exact same wave count i've been tracking for a couple days now (was your alt count). nice to have you in sync and on the team. looking fwd to more updates and good work

  3. Now since I suppose this is ruled out as 4 of 5 due to structure, is there any reason yet to rule it out as possible 2 of 5 of 1, let's say 1 of 5 got nicely extented?

    I suppose it's just the pessimist in me getting to the best of me, but I'm willing to hold my puts for quite a while...

    Monday might tell a lot.

  4. I am ruling out 4(5) for many technical and wave reasons.

  5. Dan, I am a newbie here. You earned my respect. Do you mind help me to look at FAS? How low do u think it might go? I plan to hold long term after this pull back. TIA...


  6. awesome dan
    thanks for the great chart. love the blog

  7. Can you post a chart of (5)[1] again. I can't seem to find the 5 waves down in (5)[1]. I count ended at 4(5) and I don't see a 5(5)?????


  8. This weekly candle is intriguing to say the least. Does anyone want to try and flush out the long term potentials from this star formation?

    (I'm a beginner to candles, especially beyond a 5, 15 min. and daily)

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  12. There is some support for you 758 target from quantitative analysis school of thought.

    Take a look on the chart below from$SPX_tests_805_again_and_pulls_back_to_15_min_support_files/15.gif

    This guy sees 755 as on of the two possible support levels.