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Friday, March 20, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 March



The market likes to fool us. When it impulses down like it did last week for a pullback, it reverses hard. When it meanders at the top in corrective waves, you might think there is more bull to come. But alas, it was a likely distribution pattern playing out.

774 support area broke and backtested from underneath and fell back yet again. The retrace is deep enough to confirm wave 1 up (or A) has topped at 803 resistance. I look for a H&S pattern to perhaps form. The move down from peak appears to be a 5-3-5 zig zag playing out and the initial first half 5 waves maybe are not quite finished. Then a B wave should play out in some fashion. This B wave would likely form some kind of right shoulder, even a weak one. Then any break of the Head & Shoudler neckline will set the downside target for the C wave to near term low for wave 2. Thats about as simple as I can get.

The weekly candle is a shooting star, so that suggest 803 will not be breeched next week.







12 comments:

  1. Dan, Thanks!

    Are you holding any shorts? If yes at what point are you looking to get out? 750 area or you will wait close to 730-735?

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  2. dan, you're on the exact same wave count i've been tracking for a couple days now (was your alt count). nice to have you in sync and on the team. looking fwd to more updates and good work

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  3. Now since I suppose this is ruled out as 4 of 5 due to structure, is there any reason yet to rule it out as possible 2 of 5 of 1, let's say 1 of 5 got nicely extented?

    I suppose it's just the pessimist in me getting to the best of me, but I'm willing to hold my puts for quite a while...

    Monday might tell a lot.

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  4. I am ruling out 4(5) for many technical and wave reasons.

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  5. Dan, I am a newbie here. You earned my respect. Do you mind help me to look at FAS? How low do u think it might go? I plan to hold long term after this pull back. TIA...

    Mike

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  6. awesome dan
    thanks for the great chart. love the blog
    linus

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  7. Can you post a chart of (5)[1] again. I can't seem to find the 5 waves down in (5)[1]. I count ended at 4(5) and I don't see a 5(5)?????

    Thanks!

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  8. This weekly candle is intriguing to say the least. Does anyone want to try and flush out the long term potentials from this star formation?

    (I'm a beginner to candles, especially beyond a 5, 15 min. and daily)

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  12. There is some support for you 758 target from quantitative analysis school of thought.

    Take a look on the chart below from tradingpoints.net

    http://www.tradingpoints.net/tradingpoints.net/Daily_Comment/Entries/2009/3/20_$SPX_tests_805_again_and_pulls_back_to_15_min_support_files/15.gif


    This guy sees 755 as on of the two possible support levels.

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