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Monday, March 23, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 March 2009

Still no 38% pullback, so still no wave 2 down. As I suspected last week, the 826 gap is a bull target. Its half closed. I relabeled the structure and it seems ok to me. Extended 3rd wave. Notice how the 3's and 4's overlap which is normal in a finishing structure for an extended 3rd wave.

The SPX 1 minute appears to be the last 5th subwave is itself extending which leads me to believe this move up has almost peaked. Of course I am playing with fire on a 1 minute chart with that. But it *looks* right.
Also I have provided an e-mini S&P futures chart (all sessions - including A/H's on a 1 hour scale and you can clearly see its still in a channel up. You'll also see that it is nearing the topside of the channel which should be a pullback spot. Depending on when that hits the upside.
839 is a the next hardcap resistance area and should slow the market push on first strike at least. The gap will have been closed and another nice profit taking area. If 839 is breeched, 850 should stop it cold.
Somewhere in here, a 38% move back is gonna happen. Because a nice gap up was created in the 760's. But.....If I had to guess, window dressing week will keep the market somewhat bouyant if not continued bullishness. I think it sells hard a bit April 1st.


  1. thanks are numero uno.......kliguy

  2. The rally should now be in Minor wave C of the first Intermediate wave (A) in our anticipated Primary wave B rally.
    What are your thoughts on this analysis Dano?

  3. Thanks Dan for the charts.......however, since this is a news driven event, how do you think the market will react April 2, when FASB announces their changes to M2M?

  4. Dan,

    The FED $1T last week, Geithner's $1T today, end of month window dressing -- all lifting the market higher in wave 1 of P2.

    Then, uptick rule reinstated and M2M modified to help the banks (likely in early April).

    Would it be possible under EW theory for wave 1 of P2 to keep rising above 850 (say to 875 or 900) before wave 2 corrects (say 50% to 62%)?


  5. Hey kliguy, how come you never visit the SKF zoo anymore?

  6. Hey Daneric - It's rb from stocktock - was wondering what your thoughts were on this count:


  7. Kli: Thanks buddy

    Anon: I think M2M will kick off a powerful wave 3 of A.

    SRS: yes it can indeed rally some more to say 850 or 865 or even 875. But I think that would be it and I dont expect it.

    I can see 839-842..*maybe* 850 Then it starts to rollover. The waves seem....extended

  8. Thanks for your reply, Dan.

    I'm very tempted to buy a lot of SRS when S&P hits 826-840, but I'm afraid that EOQ window-dressing could postpone a major pullback (wave 2 down), and then M2M could absolutely bury my SRS.

    Do you think wave 2 down will definitely occur this week before the M2M and wave 3 rocketship takes off in first week of April?

  9. No need to reply, Dan.

    Sorry, I asked before I gave myself enough time to think things through.

  10. Did you see the 20 day MA on the weekly timeframe? Interesting that it is attracting us to 831...your gap is just there waiting to be filled- or not...thanks for the /es channel...very clear and easy to see.

  11. Daneric: I don't understand your labeling so far. It seems to be that based on magnitude that it's more likely that Wave 1 of the current uptrend ended at 803.24 which was followed by the first truly deep retracement to 766 which seems more likely to be Wave 2. Your the EW expert and I'm just the newbie. Why wouldn't the count I suggested make sense?