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Monday, March 30, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 March





Primary Count: SPX is tracing the (a) wave of an ABC 5-3-5 zig zag of Minor Wave 2. Eventual lower target for wave 2 would be at least a 50-61% Fib retrace or 730-749. Based on the (a) wave length, 725 is possible. You can see I only have subwave iii of (a) of 2 ending at today's low. That means subwave iv up is tracing out in A/H's and tommorow's open perhaps. But after resistance is hit, it should selloff down to close the gap on a final subwave v of (a). Then the (b) wave should bounce back toward the previous subwave iv spot (wherever that is - maybe 790+) or a 38% retrace referenced from the subwave iii start of 825.

Alternate Count: SPX is tracing a (c) wave of an ABC expanded flat for wave 2. (This is EWI's primary count). That would imply once the 768-772 gap closes, then the market gets all bullish again.






6 comments:

  1. Great stuff Dan. If you look at 1938 this is exactly how things played out (your primary), assuming i'm tracking it right and we don't deviate

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  2. I'm gonna pose the same question to you as I did to Kenny. Is there a majical top number the P2 can't violate? You can read my rant on his post if you like. I'm a little confused and probably stepping too far out of the box, but my hypothetical targets are waaay up there using what I think are conservative math. Now that 1 is supposedly in we can do these things. I know projecting is just projecting, but that is why some of us use EWT and my projections predict a massive economic recovery and all is well with the world and that's not so. If you can please give me some sort of number that P2 should not violate (if that is possible) that would be a big help. Great post as always DE. Thanks for the help.

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  3. It can go to 666.8

    Well, no but you get the idea. It can retrace as long as it needs to. Typically wave 2's retrace 50-61%.

    My "Line in the sand" for me, is about 715.

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  4. Superb word. Thanks.
    As in the FTSE, the dax one would expect a corrective movement. The high last week and the opening of today indicate that we have one more short-term top. Island is a strong pattern. Two short-term resistance 4060 and 4155. Two values of hope for the bulls 3936 - 3800, and a projection for a classic bear market 3165.

    Big trades for all.
    Daily - http://rounderstrader.blogspot.com/2009/03/dax-...
    Hourly - http://rounderstrader.blogspot.com/2009/03/dax-...

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  5. Dan, I believe Shanky was asking where P2 could go, how high... 1000, 1100... without violating any EW rules.

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  6. Oh. Lets see P2...well, same rules apply. It cannot break 1576 LOL

    But realistically 50% is asking for a lot (1120).

    But...ya never know.

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