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Saturday, March 28, 2009

The Ending Diagonal Scenario


Since I posted an "ending diagonal" count on Friday's update, I figured I might as well zoom in on the SPX 1 minute and see if I can read the tea leaves on how that move may play out. The ending diagonal is based on 2 assumptions: 1) The gap at 828-832 gets closed likely Monday (maybe Tuesday). 2) Window Dressing keeps the market above 803-805 support at least until April 1st. What I find incredulous is that the bulls worked so hard to fill the 819-827 gap and then go and create another huge 4 point gap down basically at the same spot! How convenient. So upside surprise might be the theme once again. By the way, the market doesn't have to go down Monday for the ending diagonal to play out. I just added a down move just in case I have to account for a bearish open. The beauty of it if its bullish open or even flat, the ending diagonal can still play out as it is tracing "threes" within the ending diagonal and there is a lot of freedom of movement in that. Key thing is that it pops higher in the end.
The second chart shows a zig zag retrace for wave 2 that assumes wave 2 will close the 768-772 (which I think it will) gap and plays on my theme that Primary wave 2 wants to maintain key trendline support in the near term to allow the market to strengthen and avoid getting trapped back too deep inside Primary wave 1 trendlines. I charted it under the assumption that the ending diagonal plays out to a somewhat higher high than 833.
So buyer beware. These are charts based on an ending diagonal over the next 2 days. If 803-805 support breaks before these moves happen, then something else is likely going on.


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