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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

The Great Bear Wants it All Back

Will the market look like this in years to come? Beats me. I suppose if they can crank up inflation again, it might diverge. But in theory the Great Bear wants to take it all back. So far, he has taken a huge bite. Primary Wave 3 is supposed to be the greatest fear and downside moves....this thing may be just getting warmed up.

18 comments:

  1. Are saying possible spx at 250 in 2014 before we are through? Yikes!!!

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  2. great chart and very terrifying..confirms my worst fears....i am rooting to be wrong but that is truly mass destruction......kli

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  3. Dano - By expanding your timeline, are you saying that we could possibly remain in a wave 3 for 25 years?? Is is possible to do an overlay for let's say 1925 to 1950 for comparison.

    I've always felt that Bill Gates singlehandedly got the country out of the severe '74 recession with the advent of the PC, and ya never know what the future holds.

    The scariest part of what is happening can be the institualization of globalization and the problems which have arisen as a result.

    Anyway, going to sleep ... and you should never listen to scary stories at bedtime because ...

    Thanks, your dailies are far easier to take.

    Flyfar44

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  4. Dan, I've seen you post this chart before and I question its inevitability. I really do. A flat has a 3-3-5 structure. A is a 3 and B is a 3. And we are clearly putting in a 5 now. There is no reason to rule out the completion of orange [IV] once intermediate (5) is complete. But there's the rub. I don't think this is (5) at all. I think it's (3). But let's not get into that. There's probably all of half a dozen people who even understand what that means. I know YOU know what it means. And the reason I'm bringing it up is that (5), when it completes, will probably take us down to 400 or so. But it won't happen in 2014. It's going to happen this year. Bad? Yes, it will be bad. But I'm not willing to surrender my delusions yet, until the Mad Max world rips it from hands.

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  5. Dan, Just relocated your new site... thank God. I sincerly appreciate your work. $50 in your donation account as of 2 min ago. keep up the great work. FH

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  6. I think the next few days trade into a range and rally next week for expiration. However, CPC is again signalling way too much bullishness at these levels and will set up for more downside as we reach past broken support levels. LA

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  7. Although anything is possible if this is GD II, I have to very much doubt your thesis. This Bear may give it all back, but your thesis is that it will more than give it all back.

    Why is that? Because you are not adjusting for inflation.

    Do you realize that at only 3% annual inflation, prices have gone up by 80% in 20 years?

    So if you think SPX is going back to 300, in inflation adjusted dollars, that would be more like 540. Very close to the low of 550-600 that I've been looking for.

    Also 550-600 would be very close to the historical parallels we've seen in other countries that have gone through similar banking crisis such as ours. The historical parallels indicate that we have another 18 months to go in this Bear and that government debt is going to go through the roof!

    http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Aftermath.pdf

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  8. One problem with your chart, the Mayan Calendar ends on 12/21/2012, so theoretically your chart should end there too or at least bottom on that date, unless you're looking for the dead cat bounce.

    I'll go for a 5 handle at this time.

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  9. Samething McHugh is saying...Is anyone familar with him

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  10. Yes I am. I'm a subscriber. And I don't find McHugh's biblically suffused, apocalyptic spiral into ruin to be credible either.

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  11. This will not be a V shape or U shape but likely a bathtub shape with a long side ways action with a trade range from 5500 to 8200. Your short term guesses have been good. I would be more impressed if you were calling this at 12,000. You do however do some good research, keep it up.

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  12. Dan,

    Thanks again,

    In 2012, we will have the next election.

    Does it mean the democrat will win again ?

    Dont get me wrong I have nothing against either.

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  13. Everyone knows this chart...cmon. Citi publishes this every week. GS, MS too.

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  14. Great charting and comments bro. You have a great talent for this.

    Looking forward to your comments tonight.

    Cheers,

    Trader

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  15. Dan,

    I just put $100.00 on your Donate Button.

    I am up 36% this week alone based, in part, on your charts and explanations.

    Thanks

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  16. "Everyone knows this chart...cmon."

    If they don't know it they can sure talk the talk. CNBC, FOX, CNN love to give airtime to the Doomsday Club, i.e., Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Max Keiser. And the alternative is even worse. Alex Jones, Bob Chapmann, and one other guy whose name escapes me but makes the first two look like tame rabbits.

    ENOUGH ALREADY.

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  17. then in your theory, by 2014 you will be rich and Warren Buffet will be poor. interesting

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  18. just remember 1929 was a third of the size of this bear market!

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