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Sunday, March 29, 2009

A look at the NASDAQ

The NASDAQ is playing a similar structure to the SPX with only minor variations. Particularly of note is the expanding wave [iv] triangle is very much identical to the SPX. There is no ambiguity here. Each leg is a clear ABC substructure. Both even had an "e" wave overthrow which surely indicated to many at the time that a new downtrend had started.

I included the advance/decline volume ratio numbers for the many permabears out there that insist this is just another quick rally and then its off to new lows once again. The total up volume has been strong as you can see this on the daily. So in that regard, it is great evidence of trend change (for how long we can only estimate), indicating that sellers are exhausted just as EW theory predicts at the end of Primary wave 1 when bearish sentiment was registering extremes. Greed is kicking in.

Elliott Wave theory is really not about waves and retraces, et al. Its about social mood and sentiment first and foremost. The waves are merely the measuriung device on where we are in the overall pattern.

So those that insist they can see a giant ending diagonal from the 943 top and it may indeed be following a general "look" to date, doesn't mean that it is a good interpretation. Those same people really are ignoring all the other factors that go into EW theory.

5 comments:

  1. Hello Dan
    Really like this site, learning a lot (I hope), but certainly enjoying the counts and arguments!

    How do you think about a scenario where the SPX is in the second wave of wave V. Depending on where one would label IV, there would be room on the upside but also leaves room for a 'clean' V

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  2. Daneric/All--- just started following your site, thanks! I am fairly new at EW... can someone answer this question in a few words: Regarding the weekly SPX, could we be in a wave 4 correction from the major downtrend, which began 10/08/07, wave 3 beginning 5/10/08 to 3/2/09? THANKS Lee

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  3. I dont think so about the wave 4

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  4. "So those that insist they can see a giant ending diagonal from the 943 top and it may indeed be following a general "look" to date, doesn't mean that it is a good interpretation. Those same people really are ignoring all the other factors that go into EW theory."

    There are many scenarios out there (and this makes the market interessting), but why dou you think this big EDT Scenario should be wrong?

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  5. I cannot believe someone else is considering the ED. Thank you I thought I was alone, anyone else I have tried to tell on this site does not even understand it

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