Custom Search

Monday, March 23, 2009

A look at the SPX daily Chart

Lots of stuff going on in this chart. So read all my notes on it. Bottom line is the market is close (I think LOL) to a wave 1 peak. Main point: The 6 month downtrend line from September has been broken along with Primary wave 1 RSI downtrend line. Sooner rather than too much later, these lines are normally backtested as support. (what was once resistance, now becomes support). EWI pointed out the trendline break in their update tonight, but its been something a lot of TA's (edit - actually EWI has the trendline referenced against something else - I like mine better) types have been looking for.

Until the market broke this trendline, I had no confidence in any kind of 38% or more pullback. it just didn't make sense that the market obeys its Primary Wave 1 resistances and goes into a deep correction prior to breaking through and confirming a trend change. Now that the trendlines have been broken, perhaps some distance might be put on them to allow a decent pullback. But not TOO many days, because the longer the market waits to backtesting, the deeper it has to travel to touch them...but the market will do what it needs to do.

Also 804 is now support so that will be tested too sooner or later. Also, the prominent gap at 768.51 -772.31. Thats a nice gap.

Also the "apex" of the previous Intermediate 4th wave triangle is perhaps pointing to a short term top.

12 comments:

  1. If this is the preferred wave count then theoretically couldn't this still be 2 of red (5) down, at least until $875 is taken out? Good to see the large triangle getting some respect. Thanks for your work.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dan:
    Does the gap 772.31 need to be filled? or it doesn't need to

    ReplyDelete
  3. Daneric - you, Kenny, Tony, Rich are helping more folks than you know. Well, Rich is having a perplexing time now, but it's good to have all perspectives.

    Your apex looks like tomorrow! Without trying to pin you down, what is that calculated date? (scale is too small for me to tell.)

    #2 question - is your reference to 38% retracement what you normally see, expect, is a minimum... just trying to clearly understand your thoughts.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  4. I wouldn't be surprised for the "final" apex to fudged again and be around April fools by moving the lower triangle's line to the shadow of the Feb 12? Market can still perk up first to that 840-850 resistance for end of month window dressing, heck even 875 could be met as a IH$S neckline.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Also, if this is still just wave 1 of Primary 2 then we are in for one heck of a rally over the next half year/year? So this is 1 of A of 2? That implies a huge move up that probably measures at least a 62% retracement of the whole move down!

    ReplyDelete
  6. New to the site and not sure how I ended up here but hats off to DanI find it interesting that the count is way off and your 5(5) isn't even considered B of a more complex wave 4. We are now in wave C which is acting exactly as a C and should take us to 875 before we thrust to new lows. As with a bull market you can't have a meaningful turn until everyone is excited. The next move will be the bankrupting move for those hanging on to HOPE as the strong hands don't want you or me along for the ride. I hope you don't mind my opion since it's like an !@#$%^&, everyone has one. I'm not a R N Elliott expert and correct me if wrong but this is all merely a reflection of Psychology and the Socioeconomic mind. Nice work, I think.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Daneric - My pipe dream oncludes this corrective 2 forming a H&S that takes us to retrace to 740 levels, BUT that forms the larget H&S that then generates 3 up. Take a look. Might be a couple of formations worth keeping an eye on.

    http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/

    Thanks for all you do. Your work is great.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Check your count as 5(5)[1] is B in a larger 4(5)and should form the H$S you search for but over a longer time span. I still see 625-500 in the count.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I hope I'm not wearing out the welcome here but would you be able to move your count and check the measurements? I don't have software and work this out visually. Your B is a 3, your C is A, your D is B, and we are in the midst of completing C for the next down up (D down then up to E) to complete 4(5). You still get your H$S but over a longer basing type time frame.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anon it is a trend change. Primary wave 1 is over.

    Thanks Shanky. I think the test area will be the downtrend line and perhaps a brief break under. Maybe by the time that happens 740 will reside at the line.

    Chad: yeah it should be a nice rally. I give it until August 2009 then we'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Rob, yes the gap at 772 will likely be filled by Minor wave 2 down. Thats a good target.

    ReplyDelete
  12. good trading day dano donation for the cause to follow after i see your update....(im holdin the money out till i see if i like your post hehe)kli

    ReplyDelete