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Monday, March 9, 2009

Revisiting (again) the CPC

I think I was making a grave assumption using trendlines all the way from Intermediate wave 1 (which really is a different market as to what we have now) to calculate the "expected" targets of the CPC. The VIX does not bother me so much but the CPC was a bit baffling.

I think its rather easy to understand once I realigned my "expected" target trendlines for wave 3 (5). The key part was looking where the Minute wave [iii]'s in both 3(3) and 3(5) shot up to.

The Minute subwave [iii] of 3 "third of a third" is where the most put heavy CPC readings have occurred inside both 3(3) and so far 3(5). So drawing a trendline and connecting [iii] of 3 of (3) and [iii] of 3 of (5) made me realize that the bottom of 3 (5) is about right where it should be. The fact that the CPC is turning call heavy early may be because these last finishing waves of 3 (5) are in an ending diagonal (wedge) formation and downward momentum is waning.

So I satisified myself with this and the data was there all along I think.

By the way, using the same angle for 4(5) trendlines, it predicts that 4(5) will be EXTREMELY call heavy by its peak which is what we have been started to seeing. And 5(5) should reach a more put heavy trend than 3(5).

I suspect the VIX be more volatile on 5(5). Afterall didn't we just have the bottom? will be the thinking. So they may be more afraid on any trip lower next time. Just a guess. Also sub-650 is kinda scary if 5(5) reaches that area.

3 comments:

  1. Daneric,

    Thanks for providing a plausible explanation for the relatively low CPC value. I was still questioning whether 3(5) is indeed getting to the end point or not.

    I guess I should have put more faith on the 1.618 Fib expansion number, which pointed to the 650 $SPX target long before this elongated 3(5) even started.

    Thanks again.

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  2. Just wanted to say thanks Daneric I'm view your updates on stocktock and didn't know you had a blog until today. You should include your website link in one of your updates so people can read your other info. I'm learning alot thanks.

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  3. Dan, I have really have no opinion on the options sentiment since we are so oversold. I would expect that on wave (5) way down here or even on the 5th wave that these indicators won't be as useful as they have in the past.

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