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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Was 666 SPX Primary 1 Low? - No, I Don't Think So




EDIT: changed the post title - its less confusing and more to the point.
I have had several concerns about the future overall wave structure. Some I have covered in the recent past. Others I have not. Bottom line is what if 666 was the market low for Primary Wave 1? Its always something that needs to be considered. My main concern is what if the NASDAQ breaks above the wave 1(5) *low* which most everyone has marked as 1434? I solved that by moving orthodox wave 1(5) low to 1456. Why? There is a good chance 1434 was the low of a complex B wave flat in Minor wave 2(5) position. What is interesting is if I use 1456 as the orthodox "low" for 1(5), the calculated expansion ratio for wave 3(5) is now 1.593 which is a lot closer to 1.618. Same happens with moving the SPX low to 817 - wave 3(5) would have hit a 1.642 expansion at this spot using the 875 orthodox wave 2 top also.
Yesterday's advance/decline ratio was 27! A high for the bear market indeed. But I guess this is exactly where we could expect that to be.
One other concern I have is that the 1937/38 bear market which this 2008/09 market has followed remarkably close in both form and time, does not show a wave 4(5). I have limited data so perhaps I just don't see it because it was quick. Anyways the 1938 market had a "thrust" out of the triangle and that was the low. Triangles are supposed to thrust like that. This market does not have a true triangle formation save one:The NASDAQ. So do we follow guidelines for the NASDAQ and not SPX and DOW? I don't think so. I think the market always tries to fool us and this is just another way. So bottom line I am not going to worry about it anymore until it requires worrying about. I have no reason to waver on thinking a proper wave 4(5) will not play out.
The main point was that I wanted to make people aware of my concerns. I have many notes on my charts so no need to dive into this further.
One last point: The bulls left some pretty big open chart gaps down there at 676, and particularly the NASDAQ has a tasty gap. 1268.64 - 1288.95. SPX is from 676.53-679.28. Those are good sized gaps. So I am confident they will be revisited, and closed, in due time in the coming week(s). I have this weird quirk and an "expectation" that Primary Wave 2 will have no such gaps at the start for bear targeting when (and if) it plays out.



5 comments:

  1. dan, excuse my ignorance but are you still thinking rally/bullish per your earlier post. All the wave talk is too confusing to me, sorry. I do appreciate you work.

    thanks

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  2. Thats interesting, it will definitely make me more cautious and vigilant.
    What are you trading these days? I am pretty much just SPY calls and puts...with some large forays into SRS...as well as dabbling in WFC puts.

    BTW...if these waves do play out...have you given consideration to the end of primary wave 3 and 5...those are government collapsing numbers...

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  3. Dan - since your site focuses on EW analysis - could you have a EW basics post - which gives us all the background into the EW and the numbering scheme used to talk about them. This would help greatly !!!

    Thanks for the great work you do :)

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  4. Sorry for the confusion. Yes I plan on doin that this weekend. I couple of sticky posts or something explaining counts and what not.

    And yes I am still expecting a rally to 750-760 or so. Then a drop to new low. Then a massive multimonth rally for Priamry wave 2

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  5. Wave 4 retraced more than 50% of Wave 3 in April of 1938 so that is why wave 5 truncated.

    ReplyDelete