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Thursday, March 26, 2009

The SPX upper channel ~ duh!

After posting this chart tonight in my update and stating that the move up was likely over near here in the 830's, I just noticed the channel I drew corresponds exactly with my upside surprise target of 856 or so. And since futures have not been selling (the red candles are light volume) and show some staying power, perhaps today's ending diagonal is just a 1-2, 1-2 wave of the last green [v] up to 856 or so (this is where my green wave [v] = price move of green wave [i] - a normal occurrence when wave [iii] is extended). That's the problem with intraday 1 minute charts that start moves, perhaps you are only seeing half the move.

The deal breaker is 839. Any move above that mark is signalling perhaps a move to the upper target of 850-856. And accordingly any move over 839 would invalidate my intraday chart showing an ending diagonal. I guess it would make sense to rally to this channel. I thought of it before but it grabs my attention now.

But 839 is also very significant resistance and it hasn't even moved past 833 yet. So that, along with the intraday pattern I suggested the move up takes a break. I just cannot see it powering thru 839 first try but...."upside surprise" is the Spring/Summer theme for Primary wave 2. I think EWI used that term and I kind of like it.


  1. dano....keep your eye on poster jsr9900 ..this guy is a pro...has to be a current or ex floor trader .....knowledge base is amazing....check him out he is posting tonite on skf...kli...keep your eye on him ....he can help

  2. I was thinking about "upside surprises" as well. There has been plenty of that. In particular, only the other week you had 826 in a "hyper bullish" scenario and yet here we are closing above it.

    I am also confused by CPC. I expected it to bottom and NOT move back up before the peak is reached. The fast that CPC already bounced back up so much seems to indicate that bulls still have some room to run.

    Also for VIX it already broke the 40 support few times recently. I would expect it to break 40 support again at the peak.

    What about the light/average volume? Doesn't seem to me like bears are capitulating. I would expect a bigger volume at the peak as selling picks up.

    Also there is M2M next week so ...
    Gut feeling is 850ish before any real correction.

    BTW, where do you see FAZ bottoming? Seems financials are slowing down but ...

  3. Anon, if the markey pops to 856, look for the possible ascending trinagle in finacials to break upwards.

    I think M2M will be sold big time unless it sells off between now and then. Depends on what the market is ready for. If its still up here then it will likely be "sell the news".

    But not for too long....

  4. hehe as soon as I posted this , futures starts to move! good! I am still holding a small slice of FAZ....

    works every time. jinx it baby

  5. Thanks for the reply.
    I was thinking along the same lines. If everyone expects a pop on M2M then it is probably already priced in.

    Still I would expect a fight to keep it here (800+) until March ends - window dressing.

    Tough to read.

  6. Hello anon- how does one see posts by jsr9900


  7. go to yahoo and do a poster search on finance board for jsr9900...i just put a link on the skf board under the post RTS here is link....

  8. Smoke um on srs again today dano ..your call was spot on..........kli