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Monday, April 13, 2009

Comparing 2002 low to 2009 low


Which chart is which? I can find about 15 solid things that are setting up the same way from 2002 move of the low to 2009 and the move off the low.
Bottom line is I am beginning to strongly think this is an "ABC" move from the bottom which qualifies as a valid corrective for Primary wave 2. However that ABC will likely become part of a bigger corrective with perhaps an X wave or double corrective or even triple. But that is speculation.
After the blue B wave low I show on the 2002 chart, The C wave up to peak took only 11 days to play out. If we reference the B wave low of 779 in the 2009 chart, it has been 9 days since that low.
Also comparing to the 1938 chart, we are in day 26 from the low and the 1938 chart took 28 days to peak before a nice 50% retrace back toward its low.
So in both instances it seems this market has about 2 days left to peak out, if indeed it hasn't already. The banking index was lagging the rest of the market and has finally broken through its ascending triangle a few days ago. The market will peak when financials have exhausted their move up. That should be soon as there is heavy resistance coming up.
In either case, SPX 875 looks awful tough to break. It could be a blowoff top very briefly in the 870's in the SPX occurring if there is one more down/up move. Notice in 2002 it also had a blowoff top.
There are of course differences in the 2 charts. But man, the S&P has moved nearly 200 points off its low...what will cause doubt in this rally but a big retrace?

5 comments:

  1. Hi Daneric,

    Thanks for these new charts and comments.

    If S&P tops at 870-875, what do you see as the downside target? 800? 768?

    And do you see 5 or 3 waves taking us down to the target?

    Thanks.

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  2. Forgive me if I'm overlooking something, but...if this is really an ABC (vs. a 1-5) corrective, shouldn't A's move be equivalent to C ?

    If so, that would put C's target around 920...

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  3. Fuzzy yes but a C wave sometimes only travels .618 of the A wave

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  4. To Dan from Max Cherry
    what is your view on this, the reason why i think one more pop, April 15th and 16th have been up since 1980 71% of the time and the 17th 61% and the 14th 42% and it kind of fits the ending Dia.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=20&id=p55250806740

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  5. Yes Max, thats a close alternate count

    ReplyDelete