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Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 April


I said I was going to watch the lower blue wedgeline today and it was hit perfectly and a very bullish bounce. So the ending diagonal is very much back at the forefront of the wave count.

What is interesting is that it stopped at the 62% Fib mark at the end of today. That is a normal wave 2 retrace so the alternate count is that the move higher above 864 is a fakeout and not going to happen. We'll know soon enough tomorrow so no need to waste too many brain cells. I favor the upside move though because it just makes sense wave-wise. But I wonder if it could have been just a gap close type end of day move for the NASDAQ which was dragging all day long. But like I said, tomorrow will reveal the market's hand very quickly I suspect.

The ending diagonal pattern seems clear enough so no need to try and out-think it. It looks like an ending diagonal so I'll count it that way as long as 845 holds support which I think is key. 875 is resistance.

7 comments:

  1. Nice EDT, exactly what I see.

    But I think it will be truncated... and afterwards the so called "Primary 2" will die.

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  2. Daneric, in your blue count I notice three discrepancies with traditional Elliot thinking: a) wave three is always the longest wave, b) wave four should not overlap wave one and c) wave two and wave four should be dissimalar. Please note that I am not an Elliot man, I only use it as an auxiliary.

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  3. I favored your alt..last nite and it proved to be true.....didnt count on the srs slaughter...so I added at close with the same suspicion you have which is the shake out is getting long in the tooth and they might just ream the longs tomorrow...even gap down the opening with green futures...they are clever

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  4. I'm thinking big old fake out.... I'll jump on when the longs flee like rats... lol..

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  5. I agree with you Dan, the market will reveal it hand in the next couple of days as there is no more room to move side way (hight 867), i'm looking at the channel that started (Mid oct high until now, we never close above it except couple days in the begining of Nov), also if you draw a line from march low (sup about 815) will look like a triangle and that what i'm playing, I Shorted Fas AH today to hedge my SKF in case 867 break.

    TD

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  6. I'm starting to look like a complete fool with all the tops I've called on my blog over the past two weeks. At least my AAPL call still seems to be holding true. Perhaps I should write a post saying no looking back until we reach 1000 on the SP500. That should cause the market to turn for sure. LOL

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  7. Typo: if you draw a line from march low (sup about 845 and not 815)

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