Primary Count: Market is tracing an Intermediate (X) wave back toward the start point area of the ending diagonal which is 779.
Today reminded me a lot like this past December 1st. Hard morning drop with a steady drizzle all day. What we are missing though is the last subwave "c" wave down to zig zag bottom. So I have speculated a bit that this first zig zag down will bottom at 810 closing the gap or if it bounces to resistance at 840-845, then it will find support above the gap at around 815.
There is a huge gap in the 820's and those usually get filled.
The ending diagonal that we were discussing all weekend collapsed as per Elliott Wave theory in rather dramatic fashion. All that debate about what is the "uncle" point in case the market had one last spurt left was all for naught. Monday following OPEX...I should of guessed immediate selling was the order of the day since last week was up. I had forgotten about OPEX I usually don't.
As far as the bottom of the (X) wave, I have no timeline. I can only go by Elliott Wave theory and in the Elliott Wave Principle, page 38 states: "A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began (779) and typically much further."
So there ya have it.
Posts
Yup we shoulda known those bulls would yank the pants off the retail schmucks and tan their asses......
ReplyDeleteThanks, Daneric.
ReplyDeleteHelpful charts & comments, as always.
Hope you had a profitable & fun day today. We all earned this one, eh?
Yes I did have a profitable day thanks!
ReplyDeleteFAZ and QID were performing great.
SDS to hedge my 401K....its all worked so far.
I agree on an A, B, C pattern for the full correction wave. However, I dont see this correction being done in 1-2 weeks. From the look of it, I sense a 5-3-5 zigzag pattern for A, B, C: five waves for A, three waves for B, and five waves for C. From the look of it, we are only done with wave i of wave A.
ReplyDeleteI agree that this was possibly only (i) and we may not be finished with that yet. Just get me to the gap at 768 Dano! thanks for all your hard work. It really makes a difference.
ReplyDeleteInteresting find on price and time relationships: -----11/21/08 741.02 to 01/06/09 943.85 --- 30 trading days 202.83 pts-------01/06/09 943.85 to 03/06/09 666.79 40 trading days 277.06 pts,--------- 03/06/09 666.79 to 04/17/09 875.63---- 30 trading days 208.84 pts ............30/40 =.75.......... 208.84/277.06= .75....is 741 to 943 A, 943 to 666 B and 666 to 875 C. Also it traveled 147 calendar days, very close to 144 fib #. 383 trading days from 10/17/08 top (377 is fib #) ....231 from wave 2 top (233 is fib#) and to top it off, it looks like 13 trading days from the March 30 low of 779.81
ReplyDeleteMax Cherry
Max, yeah EWI has some interesting time relationships also I think many of the same ones.
ReplyDeleteTo Dan From Max Cherry
ReplyDeletethere a lot of posts going around that we could be in a wave 4 running flat, the Jan high "A" the March low "B" and the April 17 high as "C" (i have thought the same), thing is I don't see a 5 wave move for "C" I don't think a running flat can be "abc,abc,abc" what's your opinion, I do see a clear ABC off the 666 (used $nya) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=20&id=p22359389819&a=165764814&listNum=12
Max, I was one of the earlier posters. We could end up in a running triangle pattern, where we just completed the A, B, and C waves and curently in the D Wave. I believe each leg of a running triangle should be subdivided into three waves. Sorry Dan, I'll let you respond.
ReplyDeleteI don't concur with the flat scenarios. We had a trend change. Its likely going to need more time to shake out. We were due for a near term top.
ReplyDeleteI can form a bunch of hypothetical flats but its too early at this stage to seriously consider. A deep retrace to 61% and then we'll have to consider. But until then, its a moot point and market internals do not support it at this time.
Tom From Max Cherry,
ReplyDeleteI have a weekly chart that I look at every couple of days and the triangle looks like a definite possibility, I think we are in a 4th wave of some kind but Dan is right focus on the current wave and see how it unfolds.
Sweet trading as they zig and zag..........
ReplyDelete