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Sunday, April 26, 2009

Long Term Apple

I have changed my counts on Apple based its long-term wave structure. The steep unabated rise to its peak in 2007 just screams "3rd wave". Therefore its gyrations since its $202 Oct 2007 peak seem more like giant ABC corrections.
Its hard not to argue that Apple is in some kind of giant Primary 4th wave correction that will last a few years just as its Primary wave 2 took a few years to complete. Its of course at the mercy of the market in general.
It seems to be headed up to its Primary [B] wave and then a nasty [C] wave should ensue. This [C] will coincide with the SPX Primary wave [3] down due to start perhaps later this year.
Don't fret over where I exactly put the projected pathing lines. I have no firm timelines just general assumptions. I only mean to show the approx levels and form that the structure may or may not take.


  1. Thanks Dan. Any thoughts on the IYR. Looking at the 5 year chart, it looks like a massive head and shoulders pattern with a potential target at 18.50. It also has two downside gaps at 23 and 27.50. Wondering if you might have a count for this, if this makes sense.

  2. Dan. I closely follow your analysis of the S&P and find it very beneficial. However, at times you seem to take EWT beyond where it was intended. Specifically, p161 of the book states "With regard to individual stocks, other types of analysis are probably more rewarding than trying to force the stock's price action into an Elliott count that may or may not exist."

    Do you really think you can apply the theory to individual stocks and indicators such as the VIX?

  3. Hi Daneric,

    Can you tell us how the recent retesting of the 870-875 top compares with the comparable 1938 wave pattern?


  4. Dan,

    If Apple's "[C] will coincide with the SPX Primary wave [3] down", will Apple's [B] top coincide with SPX Primary wave [2] top?

    And do you see P2 topping around SPX 1000-1100?

  5. Anon, good question. A high beta stock liek Apple is a good pick for EW analysis. It is not easily manipulated and trades many many shares. So EW analysis is valid.

    The VIX? Sure look at my chart! Its very satisfying EW patterns

  6. Structure is good. I like it and the way you put it with P3 (generally - we might think you have a crystal ball but...). This retracement's depth is the only real question right now. The diagonal could take it to the 108 range or worse. Thanks for your great work.