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Thursday, April 16, 2009

S&P E-mini Futures Chart

What I'd like to show is take a look at the bottom study graph on the chart, the combined MACD and Stochastics. See how they are both screaming high as compared to the last 3 years or so and probably since the 2000 high if I could go back that far. The MACD is not quite as high as the 2007 top, but its catching. My point is they are due for a pullback I suppose.

Yet there is still no bearish MACD crossover so in theory you could go broke trying just to play by this indicator alone. But we do not use this alone do we? We have an ending diagonal situation and we have other indicators telling us that a 204 point runup without a 38% correction....well we are due.

8 comments:

  1. Thanks, Dan.

    Do you mind me asking? Are you shorting Friday or Monday? Or are you waiting for the bearish MACD crossover?

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  2. I went short today in my trading account. FAZ at $9.45 and then $8.96 and QID at $39.70.

    25% of my trading account.

    Exit half at 810 (gap close) and other half I'll play by ear...thats the initial plan anyway

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  3. Thanks, Daneric.

    Knowing your plan helps me refine my own plan.

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  4. Daneric,

    Way up here near 870, what are the odds of the 768 gap being filled?

    Thanks.

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  5. Dan,

    I love your blog. Anyway, I was monitoring the 870-875 level throughout the entire day. I load up 50% on my trading account on SRS and TZA at 870 level. I will reload the rest tomorrow if we somehow get a bounce to 875. However, I find the level of 870-875 to be a major resistant level that should not be taken lightly. The Nikkei 225 has retested its 9000-9100 level, a major resistant point, and has bounced off that line for the past three trading sessions. I expect the same for us.

    According to my chart, we might pull back to 840-845 before attempting one last bs bounce. That has been the supporting line that the market has bounced off since March 6. My supporting lines have shown a downward fan shaped. MACD histogram is also showing weakness in this rally strength.

    What is your thought on my bounce from 840-842? In my opinion, this market needs to confirm that 870 is the top before rolling over. Therefore, we will make lower high, perhaps bet. 855-860. Otherwise, I am calling for another retest to the 875 before rolling over for real.

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  6. We have see the top or mybe tomorrow we will see high between 874 and 880. Eventually do last shooting will stop most traders. I expect a flat closing for tomorrow possibly to a negative closing.
    http://rounderstrader.blogspot.com/2009/04/spx-crazy-day-tomorrow.html

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  7. Dan; this is Tom in Wilm, NC...your 5 minute chart of the SPX shows me something very Bullish. We made a high on April 13; and yesterday we went thru that high and came back and retested that area. Draw a line from the high of April 13th straight across your charts. Is that line now Support for another bull run?

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  8. Tri, you might be right and that is all good reasoning. Yes, 842-845 is a key support line at the moment

    Kid, yeah its bullish. No guarantee that this ending diagonal pans out.

    The top alternate is that this is a wave 3 and shorts are about to get fried once again.

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