Custom Search

Friday, May 1, 2009

Bulls want 875+ Close

I guess thats the gist of it. Close the week above 875 support. I set my stop losses on QID higher, I doubt they get triggered now. I got to go. So, I'll wait til Monday. I did say I was committed to 888 as the top after all. That's the plan. Correctives can take their time as we all know...

Watch the tape at the end today. A hard down move might mean some follow through on Monday. I got to run and do some stuff.

I never said I was a good daytrader LOL I have a regular job. Usually I am unable to watch the tape, I'm off work today.

24 comments:

  1. 875 doesn't mean shit. The media's going nuts about "a close above 875 is so critical, it means were going higher!!!!!" Perfect for a fakeout.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I am a day trader so I look at minute to minute movements like a hawk and if you pay attention to the all the minute technical indicators the market was going to end in the negative but just 2 minutes before the close came this 5 point spike on the S&P for no reason whatsoever. If I were to guess, this wasn't the market in general doing it but buy programs to pump up the market to make it look good for the weekend. Thus, on Monday these same people who pumped up the market will be selling into any rallies.

    I used to believe market manipulation was a crazy conspiracy. But this push above 875 by a few is basically to dupe the media and amateur investors.

    ReplyDelete
  3. amazing...financials up but markets down... maybe we just corrected wave 1 down with a weird ascending triangle ending at the close (dow would support this best) or a flat + zig-zag. I'd think we must have to open lower mon. to confirm bearish. can't go above 880.

    looks ugly but maybe not as ugly as the bullish scenario, only 3 waves up after your ending diagonal c scenario with overlaps on waves. guess a flat would have been completed setting up for wave 3 up.

    at least that's how I see it.

    ReplyDelete
  4. do you follow this guy?

    http://www.youtube.com/user/elliottwavepractitio

    ReplyDelete
  5. daneric, if you use the numbers I post on my site for exit and entry, you'll be a great daytrader.... lol...

    ReplyDelete
  6. To Anonymous day trader:

    Thanks for posting that information. It adds to my strengthening belief that market manipulation is very real and extensive.

    Although the global economic crisis has made me a bear & a short for over a year now, I have finally decided to go long because the almost total lack of pullbacks in P2 absolutely crushed my FAZ & SRS. I'll only play them if the market clearly breaks...and when P3 arrives.

    If you haven't yet read it, go to ZeroHedge.com and read the report "The Visible Hand" posted on April 17, 2009, for persuasive evidence of market manipulation by the PPT. (I'll post a link below.)

    ReplyDelete
  7. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/visible-hand.html

    ReplyDelete
  8. I told a friend of mine that a close above 875 or below 875 is very important. However, it seems like most people think that way. Therefore, the manipulators need to close the market above 875 to pull in the suckers.

    Here is an important divergence for today's market. Despite the market closing in green, several key sectors are red, namely XLF, IYR, and main retailers like SHLD, BBY, and M. These are teh guys that led the March rally. I am sensing some bs cooking behind the scene right here. If I have to guess, Monday will be a sideway day. They will tank the market on Thursday after the release of the stress test.

    ReplyDelete
  9. We have closed in the 871 - 877 range for 3 days in a row, this suggest to me the market is running out of shorts to squeeze. Once that happens we should see a pullback. Institutional buying/selling will be key.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SRS Player, I have no idea who would do this but I am thinking market makers, etc. tweaked the numbers just above 875 to get the reaction on Monday. I don't trust the market as it is and that's why I am never holding anything overnight. When there are no rules on the market, then it becomes a guessing game. This rally doesn't make any logical sense at this point but obviously there are some that want to suck more people. And at that point, where there are few suckers left, P3 will start and the reason it will go to lower levels will probably be that people will no longer believe the markets (like I do).

    ReplyDelete
  11. Someone on SKF MB today posted about the dip to negative territory in the last hour before the final push-up. He/she said traders on the NYSE floor were cheering the descent, because most traders were short. Manipulation everywhere, but who's fighting whom? Traders vs PPT? Retail vs Institutional? Goldman vs everyone else?

    ReplyDelete
  12. The action the last 3min just goes to prove some MM wanted the 785 number. What a joke this market is.

    DE - Looking at your charts on Stock charts - on the VIX chart you may want to pull out the APEX of the triangle - the tip corresponds with the large pop off the bottom.

    Thanks for the excellent work.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Does anyone think that the government is cooking the stress test results as to create a massive upside surprise (to further the current P2)? They are making it seem as if the stress test results are actually going to include negative data on the banks, when in fact they are the ones who have complete control over what data will be released and in what light they will be seen in. They are setting it up by leaking a few negative stories (such as about citibank) and by delaying the results. When the doctored and "better than expected" results do come out, this may be the upside surpise the Feds are wating for to push the market over 900 towards 945. It seems the last few days the MM are just consolidating the base at 875 in preparation for this next wave up. I am currently long SDS, but am thinking of adding a small amount of FAS to hedge for this scenario. Any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Guys, if we have a retracement before the release of the stress test, make sure to take profit on your shorts. I, too, have a feeling that the stress test result will be the silver bullet to counter this impending retracement.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Why would they delay "good" news?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Rahbii,

    They probably wouldn't delay good news so they are probably trying to figure out the best way to put a positive spin on bad news.

    SunDevil

    ReplyDelete
  17. Imho...the stress tests are designed to clear the way for the Fed/Tres to begin to transfer the rest of the bailout back to wallstreet and private investors for issuance of more equity/bonds for swap out of Tarp funds...Hot Potato, Hot Potato, Snake, Snake, Snake...

    ReplyDelete
  18. it's going higher...than 888

    damn pig is headed to 900, then who knows

    jmo, fwiw

    ReplyDelete
  19. I agree Erik.... that weekly chart looks terrible for us shorts.....

    ReplyDelete
  20. Cross currents! We have been wedging higher for what seems like 4ever. Butt there is no reason to believe the wedge is fully developed. The twin December peaks crested at 918. The early January high hit 943 inter day. I would be a happy boy if we rally for another week or so and top out in the 915-920 area. Maybe I'll leave milk and cookies out for Santa.

    ReplyDelete
  21. So you say the top is 888 but your charts earlier said we will close over 900 on Monday. I don't trust anythign you say anymore. You should be a politician. Nice charts by the way, but I think you are skitszoid.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I don't think financials/CRE have to lead the market higher now. They can take a breather for a couple more days while energy, coal, ag, transports, materials and emerging markets pull our markets higher. And the financials still have room to run. It ain't no way over till it's over.

    i have possible cycle turn dates as 5/5, 5/19 or 5/24. 4/5 could be a top and 5/19 or 5/24 a retest/fail, or it could just run until 5/19 or 5/25. My philosophy: Daytrade the hottest sectors (long) until it quits working, I'm not fighting the tape.

    ReplyDelete