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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Channel Lines are Funny Things

Earlier I was saying that the channel was broken and yes that is true for the channel I chose to draw. But you can see the e -minis have been hugging this absolute lower channel line for the past 7 hours since around 1:15 PM in the trading day. Now THAT is determination. Notice again how the MACD seems to be curling upwards from the bottom of the graph and the stochs starting to recover. Last ditch consolidation before a bigger move lower or regrouping after a nearly 50 point selloff? If overseas markets selloff tonight yet this e-mini continues to hold the channel line, that may a "tell" that the market ain't ready to give up the bull just yet.

There are no more channels to draw from this running triangle breakout from the low in mid April. So a break lower out of this last-ditch channel would try and regain this almost right away. If it cannot regain, then EWI's very bearish count may be indeed playing out and 875 would be a weak bounce. Keep an eye on how it reacts with this channel line the rest of the night and premarket tomorrow.

My gut feeling is that it somehow holds this channel line or breaks briefly below only to regain it and the market gets a decent bounce from here.


  1. Thanks for this updated chart & comment, Dan.

  2. I love channels. They are what originally got me i interested in learing charting... i could see the patterns without the lines.

  3. There is a concerted effort to hold prices up for secondaries and for Opex, then look-out.

  4. Dan I'm looking at 830 to 823 gap fill for X wave bottom. The daily indicators are toast (mainly RSI breaking down) IMO and the bear cross on weekly STO (yes, it could embed) among other trend line breaks and fibs lead me to this target. Great work. Appreciate all you do.

  5. Shanky you may be correct in the X wave nottom. I pretty much drew the same spot on my 60 min chart last night. Question is how does it get there? Visit the 200 DMA first?