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Friday, May 15, 2009

The Count From 666



EDIT: Hrmm, maybe too many Capt Morgon's last night but I meant to draw an X wave zig zag and somehow it became a flat from a 5 wave move down (rprobably becuase I am fixated on that 200DMA). That cannot happen. The B wave shouldn't retrace so high in a zig zag although 61% is possible. Maybe only to resistance at 865 or so tops. Thanks for the feedback in comments!

Someone asked for the entire count from 666. I left off the A wave subwaves cause I ran out of chart animations. The proposed (X) wave is just that...having fun based on what we have so far.

Obviously very presumptuous and I have done this before on this rally and I wind up looking like a fool. But...it is of course plausible and that's why you all visit my site...to get plausible market moves based on wave theory and such.

At the very least, it gives the novice waver an idea of a what an (X) wave is.

13 comments:

  1. For flat (X)-pattern A as five ?
    For zig-zag (X)-pattern B so high ?

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  2. Dano --You're cranking out some great stuff -- pumped and proficient! Thanks for all your terrific work.

    PS - Oh .. so THAT'S the X wave! flyfar

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  3. Wait a minute, you mean that what you draw out into the future isn't guaranteed to be what actually happens? Why do I even bother coming here...

    As always, thanks for the hard work (although I know for you it isn't really work when you have a hobby that you enjoy... but we won't tell anyone)

    I personally like the chart you have on your Stockcharts site that shows your estimation for P1 all the way thru P5.

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  4. dan
    i just saw the stockcharts pages you put out.
    you say, DJFIN hit ended a 3 with march lows, while spx ended a 5 with march lows.
    why is that?
    are to assume that DJFIN 5 is about to begin?
    thanks

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  5. Dan, this count from 666 does not work with your Speculative P2 chat (How Long Will P2 Take?) Are you rethinking that chart? You call for s&p 830ish, then a second half of '09 move to 1100. Your latest count has us in the 700s in July.

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  6. If you drop your recent high from s&p 949 to the 930 it actually hit, we might could drop to 800 by 4th of July, then make the final run through year end to 1050 or so. Thoughts?

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  7. Escaping the fork, saga continues Elliott Wave Forkology Update May 15th

    Today SPX was trying to escape the fork, and made a run for it in the morning. SWAT Team was dispatched and heavy battle begun but resolved fairly quickly. We did cross red warning line setup yesterday, but it was not meant to be and we returned back to the fork's upper line(under arrest in handcuffs). Spent the rest of the day(in jail) following fork's upper line down with some bounce at eod. This is typical for corrective price action.

    Looking at daily SPX we can suggest a run to 840-860 area if it is zig-zag down or we can stay in 870-900ish area if it is flat correction. This potentially could be a triangle as well.

    And now the fun part! Our resent poll indicated completely devastating illiteracy of trading public about Elliott Wave Theory as you can see as many at 49% don't even know what it is :) lol Interesting how gurus at EWI would answer this question. Anyway majority believes it is less than 50% when both Wave A and C are impulsive in an ABC correction. But disturbingly 11% believes it is over 85%. So the question remains for statistical researcher - in actuallity what's the answer to that question. My guess it should be less than 25%

    As many readers remember our proprietary $NYMO-based cyclical model, which started around beginning of this Bear market in 2007 is still functioning well. Although we already experienced 2 shifts in the cycle bottoms we still use it til it breakes. It clearly rolled over and we're for a journey to some sort of a low at around mid June to late July early August timeframe, considering cycle shifts. The only problem we see is STO and MACD is already very close to bottoming levels.
    http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com

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  8. Linus I just don;t know. The banking index is different than the DJUSFN.

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  9. thanks for posting this chart. I would like to point out that the "e" wave of the triangle B actually has B correcting A, that is e is below the top of A. This is much better than one of the other alternatives for B that was talked about in the past.

    Kenny has had an intraday 4th wave triangle not actually correcting the previous wave's movement, something to watch out for as this is a violation especially on the intraday charts.

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  10. does anybody know how this fork guy is actually counting? i cannot make sense out of it.

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  11. dan
    sorry i should have been clearer.
    both bkx and djfin show march low as end of 3 on daily and weekly. currently we are in wave 4 of P1.

    spx show end of 5 on both daily and weekly.
    currently we are in P2.

    if the counts are right, then we can assume that financial are in for a capitulation worse the march lows.
    did you notice that on your stockcharts.
    thanks
    linus

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  12. P3 just start...
    P2 finished a week ago

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