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Monday, May 11, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 May




Edit 6PM: As some posters have noticed, the e-mini chart shows triangle potential. The bulls, I think, know that 900 must hold as a general rule of thumb if they are going to march onward to close the January gap and hit the 200DMA prior to a significant decline. Also volume was light today which is bullish.

Primary Count: (c) wave in a minute wave [iv] flat is playing out.
Alternate Count: 930 was the peak of the rally for the near term.
I have a weakness for failing to see potential flat moves as they are not too difficult when they play out over days. Today could have been part of a (c) wave in a Minute wave [iv] flat. If this is a flat, there could be some more early market weakness to perhaps 898-900 as the c wave low. Then the market would get bullish again if this was a flat. If its not a flat?
There is a space of SPX that is "overlap free" from 888-893 where the market powered up higher a few trading days ago. This space is what I consider virgin space that must remain untraced for the bulls to maintain their momentum in this C wave. A break into that virgin space would confirm, to me, that the C wave had already peaked. For that matter a break under 898 would also concern me that the near term peak has been set.
As I write this the channels have been nearly breeched and you can only adjust them so much.
Oddly enough, The NASDAQ was a bit bullish today. So that might help indicate a wave [iv] flat.

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