Primary Count: A minute wave [iv] of C up finished tracing its low today at 896.47. The late day move up was the first subwave 1 up of a final move to a new high.
Alternate Count: 930 was the peak of a C wave rally from the mid-800's. Today's low was a wave 1 (or A) down move in a larger retrace pattern to lower SPX levels.
Commentary: The 15 minute chart shows a bounce at the low today of one of the more extreme outer trendlines. Overall the move down ended pretty much where I expected at between 897 and 900. This is the "control" low and the market must maintain above today's low of 896.46 or else a confirmation of a larger bear move down will occur.
The (close) alternate count has a lot going for it as well obviously. The market is impulsing down in 5 wave moves and counts well enough from the 930 peak. But a subwave C of a corrective flat is supposed to be a 5 wave move impulse pattern so the jury is out if this is just the opening gambit of a larger bear move below 896.46. Also a typical retrace to the previous subwave 4's spot occurred in late afternoon and hit just over a 50% retrace spot which is typical of a wave 2 move.
The overall pattern fits better with the primary count of this being a Minute wave [iv] low. However the market will likely reveal its hand shortly. A move under 896.46 confirms a larger bear move down.
The other "tell" is if tomorrow is a big gap up open then it is likely confirming my primary count that the market wants to make one more peak above 930.
Bottom line is this: a clear 5 wave move down occurred from 930 peak. Is it a bear wave down or a subwave C corrective that implies the market is ready to get bullish again and make a run for a new high? My primary count favors one last run for a new high. However a very close second is the larger bear move pattern. The actions overnight and early Wednesday will confirm the true direction.
I ditched half of my 401K longs to protect my profits as there is no guarantee the market is going higher from here.. I am a permabear of course. The fact that I held this long amazes me.