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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 May

I don't have a primary count at the moment. I felt last night the market would get a nice bounce here and indeed it was an ok bounce today. Additonally, today's squiggles traced a 5 wave move up and then retrace back to wave iv apex which is a bullish corrrection. This suggests that tomorrow will power back over 900 at least briefly.

My dilemna is EWI has a very bearish count and the bottom today was a second wave one down (I have my degree marked different thean they do) in a series of ones and two's. This implies that the retrace up cannot violate 915 SPX to the upside. This also implies that after this retrace is over (likely tomorrow sometime), the market is due for the "heart" of a wave three move lower which should take the market down in a very bearish down day. That would likely be perhaps part of Friday with most of the follow through on Monday and maybe Tuesday.

Today's actions were kind of weak if this is to be a new move back up toward the 920's or even a new peak in some kind of B wave flat as I described last night.

So those are the 2 counts: 1) The more bearish is a retrace up to no more than 914 SPX. Indeed if a zig zag up from today's low is playing out your looking at about 906 tops (c= a = 906). Then a hard turn back down. This bearish count will eventually power through 875 to a lower SPX number in the coming week(s).

2) The less bearish count is a flat is playing out from the 930 peak and the market heads back to the 920's at the very least on a B wave and perhaps a new peak or even the 200 DMA. Depends on what kind of flat evolves. The problem with this scenario is today looked weak and looked like more like a dead cat bounce rather than a true turn back up. But perhaps I need to give the market one more day to prove itself one way or the other.

But...being a permabear, I favor EWI's count at the moment. They are indeed the experts and I myself was only saying a week or so ago this market is heading DOWN.

So bottom line: I'll let the market tell me tomorrow. A weak move to 906 (particularly a gap up)would be a golden entrance to short. Anything over 910 and my bullish flat scenario is in play. Of course a gap down and bloody opening supports the bearish count.


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