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Friday, May 15, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 May

EDIT: Nevermind. I'll post more this weekend.

Good call by Kenny on the "wedged - A wave zig-zag" in yesterday's move up to 898. It wasn't a 5 wave move and it stunk and Kenny called it. Overall, I'd say the market is primed for a big gap down through 875 support come Monday. This would be the "third of the third". It is also known as the "Point of Recognition" in EW terms. That would be the spot where everyone goes "uh-oh" and realizes that something ain't right in bull land.
There is one variation on this super-bearish count that could be somewhat realistic: Monday is a "rope-a-dopes" sideways day in one more attempt to retake key support zones like 888. It fails at the upper blue channel line (see chart) and starts to get bearish through the day and Tuesday would be the big gapper down.
So there ya have it. There are other less bearish possibilities of course, including a Minor B wave triangle that drifts sideways for some days and then a Minor C wave heads down to an (X) wave bottom, say 820 SPX. But that is way too much ahead of myself there. Monday/Tuesday will start to reveal the true form of this (likely) (X) wave (I hope it is, I don't want the market to collapse in P3 just yet. I don't look forward to social unrest.)
I don't have a real good bullish possibility because today made a new low, that kind of confirms the bearish counts.


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