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Friday, May 15, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 May

EDIT: Nevermind. I'll post more this weekend.



Good call by Kenny on the "wedged - A wave zig-zag" in yesterday's move up to 898. It wasn't a 5 wave move and it stunk and Kenny called it. Overall, I'd say the market is primed for a big gap down through 875 support come Monday. This would be the "third of the third". It is also known as the "Point of Recognition" in EW terms. That would be the spot where everyone goes "uh-oh" and realizes that something ain't right in bull land.
There is one variation on this super-bearish count that could be somewhat realistic: Monday is a "rope-a-dopes" sideways day in one more attempt to retake key support zones like 888. It fails at the upper blue channel line (see chart) and starts to get bearish through the day and Tuesday would be the big gapper down.
So there ya have it. There are other less bearish possibilities of course, including a Minor B wave triangle that drifts sideways for some days and then a Minor C wave heads down to an (X) wave bottom, say 820 SPX. But that is way too much ahead of myself there. Monday/Tuesday will start to reveal the true form of this (likely) (X) wave (I hope it is, I don't want the market to collapse in P3 just yet. I don't look forward to social unrest.)
I don't have a real good bullish possibility because today made a new low, that kind of confirms the bearish counts.

16 comments:

  1. Blessings from above unto thy spirit

    Would you please place a [P3] above the blue (C). This [P3] should play out by the middle of October 2009. Are you able to foresee that and charted? I am sure you can imagine that.

    God Bless you

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  2. I agree with your bearish sentiment. Way too many downside gaps on every crap stock imaginable, especially the financials, as well as a lot of upside gaps on every inverse ETF (and for those who don't think these gaps get filled because TA doesn't apply to ETFs, take a look at SDS's gap on 12/22/08 - SDS hit its low then went on to gain over 31% in seven trading days filling the gap). SDS currently has two upside gaps, the highest one, if filled, would take the SPX down to 61.8% retracement from the March lows, around 770, which also happens to be a gap on the SPX, and could possibly complete the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders there, sending it higher to eventually hit it's 200 ma. But who knows, with this market being rigged the way it is, the financials may hit all time highs (even before the economic crisis) in no time.

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  3. and the vix is ready to breakout.

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Dan, I think we could go down and hit a 50% or 61.8% retracement off the May 6 highs without any real threat to your P[2] scenario. Beyond that however...yup...we got Troubles in River City. That starts with 'T' and rhymes with 'G' which stands for Guns!

    Student, please don't involve your deity in a market discussion.

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  6. Don't worry my kids...
    When I create this world, I already know how it ends...
    I will push the market up on Monday!

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  7. Bulls still very confident....I think they try one of the alternate counts with a rising diagonal move early monday.....then hammer it off of that just to move a little more juice out of their positions...it makes sense...no reason to gap it down hehehehee..just yet...later on monday ...but I have plenty of shorts just in case...great chart

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  8. Dear god, go back to your yhoo message board.

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  9. i've got the same count dan. good work. if we're about to hit a 3 of 3, all say within a minor A, that means big big down waves. I'm thinking maybe 800 or that 780 wedge start for starters

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  10. Agree JB and thinking the same thing.

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  11. Hey Dano -- As always thank you for your chart -- it's bootiful! Was wondering if the numbering now employed is consistant with Wednesday's (5/13) generalized Bullish Alternative or essentially the start of a new wave? I have been checking the VIX, and and although going up a little, it doesn't seem to correlate with what is happening. Any thoughts?

    Thanks again ... flyfar

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  12. Hi Daneric, I am rtspayne from the Yahoo SKF board. To simplify where you perceive us to be in the EW structure, am I correct that you believe we are in P2 (an up wave) > wave 2 of 5 (a down wave, to be followed by P2 wave 3 of 5 which will be a powerful up wave)?

    I saw Kli's posts today about 3 of 3, but that's getting way ahead of where we are today... correct or notso?

    Thanks very much for your contributions to our renegade little band of traders/market junkies.

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  13. jb, dan
    this would be 3 of 3 of Minor A of ???of ??? of P2.
    Is there a 15 min or 60 min chart. 5 and 1 min are good for daytrading but cant see forest from trees. any help will be appreciated.

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  14. let me rephrase for clarity: do you think we are in wave 2 of 5 within P2? with 3 of 5 within p2 being a strongly positive wave... correct? Thanks.

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  15. ....current downside targets for S&P cash = 846.34 and S&P e-mini = 844.15 - although not in a straight line down...tbrown

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