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Monday, May 18, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 May

Primary Count: An (X) wave flat is playing out from 930 peak. 14:1 advance/decline volume ratio today suggests that this move up will need to play a few more days to a higher spot. However, overall volume, at least on the e-minis, was even less than Friday. I don't have the numbers yet for the SPX as they are not out yet on Lower total volume numbers would be consistent with a B wave.
The support/resistance lines are pretty clear at this point. I marked them on the chart. It looks like bulls will be gunning for the 200DMA afterall (please just do it and get it over with!)
By Friday the 200 DMA should be down near the top of the island gap at 935 SPX . Getting back to 910 was only half the battle. Now getting this market over 915 and then through heavy resistance in the 920's and 930's will be more of an uneven and unsteady advance perhaps.
The bears will get their revenge. Patience. Because following a B wave comes the C wave and if this is an expanded flat, look for a move lower than 875 SPX.


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