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Monday, May 18, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 May


Primary Count: An (X) wave flat is playing out from 930 peak. 14:1 advance/decline volume ratio today suggests that this move up will need to play a few more days to a higher spot. However, overall volume, at least on the e-minis, was even less than Friday. I don't have the numbers yet for the SPX as they are not out yet on Stockcharts.com. Lower total volume numbers would be consistent with a B wave.
The support/resistance lines are pretty clear at this point. I marked them on the chart. It looks like bulls will be gunning for the 200DMA afterall (please just do it and get it over with!)
By Friday the 200 DMA should be down near the top of the island gap at 935 SPX . Getting back to 910 was only half the battle. Now getting this market over 915 and then through heavy resistance in the 920's and 930's will be more of an uneven and unsteady advance perhaps.
The bears will get their revenge. Patience. Because following a B wave comes the C wave and if this is an expanded flat, look for a move lower than 875 SPX.

15 comments:

  1. What happens after C? Will we start P3?

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  2. 875 Daneric is that what the bears are waiting for after a move like this 40% off the bottom?
    When do you see P3 coming? Praechter says get ready for the next leg down...that sounds like it could be a 3?

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  3. Daneric,

    Great charts and work you.The A/D numbers and A/D volume today,do you think we could blow through these resistance at 915,920,935(island gap pretty quickly)?
    Also what are the chances of we only finished 1st wave of P-2 on the 14th and just finished 2nd wave of P-2 on the 15th and today started the 3rd of P-2 assuming it takes five waves all the way to 1040-1100.Please provide your thoughts.Thanks very much

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  4. dan, can you let us know what your stockcharts symbol is for tracking a/d volume ratio and getting 14:1? thanks brother. looks good

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  5. Daneric,

    What I meant was starting Wave 3 of WAVE C of P-2,having finished 1 & 2 of Wave C of P-2 ? Pl. comment,thanks.

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  6. Could be Bechtel, but I don;t rate it high just yet.

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  7. gap up tomorrow maybe. We ALWAYS gap over resistance. The no-balls bulls, the shitfaces that they are, can't do it any other way. Bunch of MF retards.

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  8. Daneric,
    $ Vix at 8 months low.This leg today seems very powerful,suits the personality of 3rd wave starting of Wave C of P-2. Wave 1 of Wave C was impulsive net 83 pts. Wave 2 of C was 52 pts.approx.0.62 retracement of Wave 1 (over lapping corrective ended Friday 5/15)
    Do you think we have started Wave 3 of Wave C of P-2?

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  9. Instead of the 200 mva on the Daily...what about reaching the 50 mva on the Weekly??

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  10. My guess is it will be an expanded.....and ya know how that will end

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  11. Dan, sorry to bug you here but don't know if you check yahoo. Can you comment on this? It's probably bunk, but I found it interesting, and I don't know if there is any EW implication.

    http://stockstop.org/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1355

    Basically I'm just looking at the 161.8% extension after a 50% pullback on each of the moves from the channel bottom to the channel top.

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  12. caldaroe says kenny cant count sht, sorry kenney , but you suck.

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  13. Marky that is very interesting. Nice.

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  14. does it do anything for any count?

    btw recently you said "if monday is up on good a/d volume...."

    I guess today qualified huh?? :)

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  15. Thought you were overly obsessed with the 200 day ma....well, maybe you weren't! I presume if we get to the 200 day ma, we pull back. But I'm getting the feeling after we pull back we push beyond it....I mean what else would make the bulls more confident while demoralizing the bears beyond belief?

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