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Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 May


There are lots of ways of counting the moves from 878. The whole structure reminded me of a violent bear rally zig zag that we have seen in portions of this bear market. On the surface, it appears I labeled the waves today kind of funny. But it make more sense as the actual high on the e-minis occurred at 6:30 am this morning so I view today as a "corrective" move. And since the waves are complicated looking, at first I thought them to be a triangle.

From a common sense standpoint, the market is skating on thin ice. It has to "correct" after a big up day, yet it cannot correct in price too deeply or it will have lost key support levels, mainly the 898 - 900 support level. So the correction has to occur in a complex way and that smells like an [x] wave if you ask me. The final (c) wave of this complex correction broke downward late in the day in a big 5 wave move so either it will bottom in A/H's and then again tomorrow early trading or it bottomed today

The key I think, is the market needed to correct, yet maintain 900 support if it is going to have a crack at running higher into the 920's Big gap area. It may have achieved this.

Any retrace lower than 896 would be very damaging. The SPX managed to repair the 50/200 bearish crossover on the 30 minute chart. It re-crossed in a bullish manner. Yesterday's big rally and today's upward corrective bias allowed it to do that.

5 comments:

  1. Torrmow will be a very tricky day.

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  2. Nice chart Dan...

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  3. Hope the market rally after touching 898 in AH,
    because I'm holding FAS, SSO,

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  4. If you move the current wave (c) label to the (e)wave position, the (a)/(c) trend line will be much better. At present, if you draw a trend line connecting (a) to (c), 90% of '(e)' hangs out below this line. E waves can overshoot and undershoot to some extent, but this is too much. This implies some further hesitation tomorrow as well, as waves (d) & (e) play out. Once they are complete, then wave [C] can play out to the upside.

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  5. looking back looks like a zigzag+expanding flat combo off the 915 "a" highs.

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