Custom Search

Friday, May 22, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 May




The Bears are in control. Today was more a consolidation day for the bears than a rebound attempt by the bulls. I have an interesting 1 minute chart that kind of explains today's action.

The market basically pushed to under resistance at 896 and triangulated all day. Then it tried for the breakout move but was slapped down rather easily at the 38% retrace Fib mark at 896 which is also major resistance now.

Even if the bulls manage once last bum rush up the mountain come Monday, I think it is largely doomed to failure.

The 60 Minute chart is also starting to falter.

The price action can be summed simply: 875-878 support zone has now been backtested twice. The first backtest resulted in a short-lived, yet spirited, rally that failed rather decisively at Big Gap resistance. The second backtest resulted in a bounce of only 38% (so far) of the previous bounce. The next backtest may not survive much of a bounce at all.

Once 875 breaks, pessimism may come into the market in sufficient amounts to allow this (X) wave to correct. How much it corrects is anyone's guess, but my best guess right now is my count on the 30 minute chart that I show.

20 comments:

  1. Market is going down since we are in Wave C

    Look out... plunge on Monday

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dan:

    Check out this comparison between the market so far and the 36-39 precedent.

    http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/investment-u-outlook-bull-or-bear.html

    I wonder whether your analysis can validate or not.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Bear in total control here
    Pushing the S&P, Dow , RUT below the 20MA...
    and the backtest failed

    next target 50MA

    ReplyDelete
  4. Looks like all overseas markets are going to plunge next week...

    ReplyDelete
  5. I went with the flat instead of the triangle - it seems to fit better? This suggests to me that a WXY is complete, and while there may be a XZ in store, there is a higher probablility (than in the count with the triangle) that the next impulse down is forthcoming because we have a complete structure. Cheers!

    http://screencast.com/t/BzJrjSqp

    ReplyDelete
  6. I trade for living; I won't consider buying shit until the SPX is sub 800.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Wave 3 of C (down) is the next move...

    ReplyDelete
  8. Very bearish close this week...
    Expect to see S&P500 at 862 in the next couple of days

    ReplyDelete
  9. Wave B played out today. If A=C, the market will penatrate through 875 for this Wave C move to 850ish.

    ReplyDelete
  10. the weekly candle on indexes looks like a gravestone for bulls.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I am not sure how serious this cycles analysis is, but it points to the same conclusion of a down market until first part of July.

    http://markettimingcycles.wordpress.com/category/weekly-preview/

    ReplyDelete
  12. like the change in blue W-X-Y labels. I missed that possibility today but it looks like W cannot be a flat since we did not bounce back today strongly enough to create the X. who knows, maybe people will just love stock on tuesday but I hope not, that chart will be so sloppy if it turns bullish, the flat would be streaching it.

    ReplyDelete
  13. maybe goldman and sachs will be buying futures whole monday to ake the bear even more angry.

    ReplyDelete
  14. All overseas market are going to plunge ...
    Bulls will get kill next week...

    ReplyDelete
  15. "Even if the bulls manage once last bum rush..."

    Ahem. Them bulls aint managing shinola. They's gettin' the bum rush by the management at Chez Bear. ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  16. hehe, fine. in any case, if bulls manage to take above 900 run, a cool head and shoulders pattern could appear, as well as another weekly shooting star or a candle with a long upper tail. but i cant remember two shoting stars next to each other. that would be a meteor shower candle pattern :D (unlikely, but funny)

    ReplyDelete
  17. Dan, respectfully, I disagree with the channel, though it may not be that relevant. I believe it is more accurate to adjust it down slightly on the right hand side, lining up all 4 tops in march to april, showing a dramatic stick-save on may 21. IT was a huge bounce. ALl it does is line up more points, but does show a larger throwever on may 7 & 11, but even this shows smaller thrusts finding resistance in short timeframes.

    Have a good weekend!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Forget about any move higher.

    The next move is going down to 830... there's no other option.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Dan your 840 target is right!
    Since the options market are pointing to the 830-840 area

    ReplyDelete
  20. At least the consensus isn't too bearish here or anything.

    :)

    ReplyDelete