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Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 May

Primary Count: SPX is tracing out an X wave flat. The alternate is that the X wave peaked today.

Secondary Count: SPX is tracing out a bullish contracting triangle and a move down to "E" will produce a thrust rally up and begin the next ABC Minor moves to a higher mark and finally breakout of the trading range the market has been in.

The bouncing between 878 and 920's will soon likely come to an end one way or the other. Either a final bounce off near 878-880 support will produce a breakout move higher above 930 SPX or the bounce will be "false" and turn down on a dime and break thru 878 support lower.

To be honest I slightly favor the latter because I don't think bullishness has been shaken out enough just yet according to my $BPSPX chart I provided. In addition, the whole pattern looks "descending" more than anything on the SPX, at least at this moment in time. And that would be a distribution pattern more than anything. The bullish triangle could be just a big red herring for the bulls. They buy the "E" spot bounce , see a 5 wave move up to X (3-3-5 X wave flat) and then a hard reversal sends the market crashing through 878 support and catches bulls completely with their pants down.

In either case, we'll just have to let the market decide if it has corrected enough to support a volume move higher above 930SPX and rally above the 200DMA. My gut feeling is that it will sport a second corrective pattern (after a blue X wave), maybe a zig zag down to Y.


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