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Friday, May 29, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 May




UPDATE 5:20 PM: added a 1 minute chart

Primary Count is the Blue Minor X wave peaked today and on Monday the next Minor-degree level corrective wave will begin to play out. I posted a lot last night on these patterns. The alternate of course is the giant Intermediate sized Red (X) wave triangle. Today's high would have been the "D" peak. I also posted a lot on that scenario too.

In both counts, the next short term moves would be the same: Down. And the wave patterns down could very well take the same form in both patterns: zig zags.

Really the only difference is that in the triangle pattern 880 will hold as the next low. In the WXY pattern 880 can break down and the market is free to trace lower and even trace out a triple corrective pattern if need be (WXYXZ)

So the Blue X wave scenario supports some big red distribution type days and maybe the market is due for some and the first day of a new month - June - would be a nice spot I suppose to supply that down day.

Is there a straight up bullish option come Monday? Sure. That would mean that the E spot was hit yesterday and the market will break out and up come next week. But the technicals and wave structures so far from yesterday do not really support that scenario so that is a low probability at this stage. Also I see negative divergences setting up on indicators and such. In addition that would mean that Intermediate RED (X) wave would have taken the form of a triangle. I really don't know of any examples of X waves at ANY degree to be solely triangles.

I'll post more this weekend for sure.

17 comments:

  1. There is no bullish case since all overseas market are overbought...

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  2. That's just great Dan. It seems we are on the same page. I have a target of 921-922. Look for just a dump at the open or a inside doji Monday. I have some weekly Minis stuff too I am going to post.

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  3. Dan .. do you still have your QID? I have some and am wondering if I should cut my losses. Thanks.

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  4. Kenny ignore those non-sense comment...

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  5. we have atarted wave 5

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=2&dy=14&id=p78748842622&a=169401971

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  6. instead of so many zigzags just follow the channel- why make it so difficult

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  7. 1) kenny haters need to piss off. 2) Dan, ever heard of the zweig breadth thrust? according to my indicators, we just got one today. they don't happen very often, and when they do, it's a confirmation of a new bull rally. my guess is we pull back according to your plan, maybe even as short as the triangle ascending line and then the sky's the limit

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  8. Jb, no but it sounds interesting. I don;t know how to make the chart quite. So today we had it fire? I see it fired back in March already

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  9. Hi Dan

    Can you count on /ES? /Es went all the way up to 927.75. Does it change anything?

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  10. Johnny, we did not get one today. We had one in March.

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  11. Dan,
    Can you delete inappropriate comments from your blog?

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  12. Dear Daneric i'm Filipe from www.elliottmarketwaves@blogstop.com and i must say that i never say nothing inappropriate about you or anyone from EW's. On the other hand i respect and appreciate alot your work and blog. Keep your excellent work and i only can suggest that you use the Discus in your blog to catch this asshole (or anothers like him).

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  13. k and d, here's the chart i'm using for zweig. let me know if something is off. i look for a shot from < 40 to > 61.5 within 10 days

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RHNYA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74739395570

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  14. Johnny B Thats a 10 day MA but it needs to be calculated by dividing the quantity of advancing issues by the quantity of advancing plus declining issues, and creating a 10 day moving average of the resulting percentage.

    Thats per K and what I found on the internet. I dont know how to set that up with stockcharts.com

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  15. Johnny something must be wrong with the way you are doing it. They have it at TOS with the 40 and 61.5 line ready drawn and it did not happen. This does not seem odd at all since the signals are so infrequent and we had one on March to kick off P2.

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  16. ok, thanks guys. will try to do more tinkering with stockcharts as well vs the algorithm and TOS and let you know

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  17. Breadth thrusts only occur off of heavily oversold conditions generally around the -2000 level for the McClellan summation index. We've had a couple of weeks of meandering below the 0 line on the McCl. oscillator and never really got anywhere near oversold. So I don't see any explosive thrusts from this area. In fact, McO pattern more closely resembles the late Jan early Feb '09 pattern. Click data at McOscillator.com and there will be a chart going back a year of the McOscillator. We probably had a huge breadth thrust because we plunged into mega-oversold values on the Mc Summation index in Nov '08 of -5000 which I have never seen before and had higher oversold value of -2000 at the March low (positive divergence)
    Mr. Panic of 1907/2009

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