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Friday, May 29, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 May




UPDATE 5:20 PM: added a 1 minute chart

Primary Count is the Blue Minor X wave peaked today and on Monday the next Minor-degree level corrective wave will begin to play out. I posted a lot last night on these patterns. The alternate of course is the giant Intermediate sized Red (X) wave triangle. Today's high would have been the "D" peak. I also posted a lot on that scenario too.

In both counts, the next short term moves would be the same: Down. And the wave patterns down could very well take the same form in both patterns: zig zags.

Really the only difference is that in the triangle pattern 880 will hold as the next low. In the WXY pattern 880 can break down and the market is free to trace lower and even trace out a triple corrective pattern if need be (WXYXZ)

So the Blue X wave scenario supports some big red distribution type days and maybe the market is due for some and the first day of a new month - June - would be a nice spot I suppose to supply that down day.

Is there a straight up bullish option come Monday? Sure. That would mean that the E spot was hit yesterday and the market will break out and up come next week. But the technicals and wave structures so far from yesterday do not really support that scenario so that is a low probability at this stage. Also I see negative divergences setting up on indicators and such. In addition that would mean that Intermediate RED (X) wave would have taken the form of a triangle. I really don't know of any examples of X waves at ANY degree to be solely triangles.

I'll post more this weekend for sure.

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