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Monday, May 4, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 May

Primary Count: SPX is tracing out a Minute wave [iii] up on a Minor Wave C
Alternate Count: SPX is topping out on a Minute [d] wave expanding triangle that consists of a double zig zag for the entire [d] wave. A big move down to an unknown [e] would be next. I showed this count on a post last Thursday:
The alternate count would be an unusual one and would account for any retrace below 866 if it were to suddenly happen . I do not favor a move at the moment below 866 which means this expanding triangle idea of mine is likely wrong. But its a valid count at the moment nontheless. Another series of wave moves up would invalidate this idea for good.
I think TA has definately some bearish elements to it for the moment. But it hasn't stopped the price gains. I think the attraction to the 200DMA is just like a magnet. A breakout of the upper trendline I show on my 2 charts would require some volume likely. And if that comes back into the market, it will be bullish and overrun any short term bearish technical indicators.
If April was indeed one big running triangle "correction", then the breakout C wave must play out to peak price. And that peak price resides somewhere higher.
I do expect a correction back to the previous wave iv apex which is around 896 SPX. It might retrace a tad lower perhaps to test 888 again as support but there is not a requirement for that.


  1. Wow, and you bloggers have been calling for a correction since 800. Good thing you have a day job.

  2. It's true Kenny was good before he got into this EW he can't find his way at all...he's been so off it's scary....the amount of $$$ that he missed out on long is unbelievable..should have listened to Waxie who called of Dow 8500 3 weeks ago..

  3. I have core long holdinshg since before 700 was hit to the upside.

    Ain't selling til the 200DMA at least.

    I am sure you anon guys traded everything perfectly....good job.

  4. Kenny has admitted many times he has had a hard time getting his head around this run. Kenny has made good calls in the same period on HIG and CHK just to name a couple. No one and I do mean no one gets it right 100% of the time.

  5. lol, I have to back Dan up 100% here. Dan is an _excellent_ Elliott Wave technician, you guys just have no idea. He even gave you alternate counts as any good technician would, he presented this scenario LONG ago. If anything were certain then there would be no value in doing it; and we would not even be here!

  6. I can't find my way around these waves.
    But take a look at this:
    666+261(fib 2.618)=927
    966= 1576( high of 2007)-610( fibinacci)

  7. Dan,
    On this pullback, do you have a S&P price that would void the bullish count or your primary count and make it more likely that the alternate count is correct? Thanks in advance.

  8. Dan, you got your breakout on volume. 200DMA imminent?