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Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 May

EDIT 1900: As LeM pointed out in comments, I took down the "flat" as the [b] wave expanding triangle really shouldn't be part of a flat by EW guideline. So this point's towards Kenny's count is being correct and a pullback to 893 may not happen. But that doesn't rule out a zig zag in the position. Regardless, the market is fixin to get real bullish if this is continuance of wave [iii] as we have charted even if it drops one more time into the 890's as my chart shows. So it comes down in arguing over the squiggles. Just don't lose sight of the larger picture which is overall bullish to finish out a C wave to peak.
I took the Kenny challenge on the squiggle chart. Waves seem corrective in nature. Consolidation for a move higher eventually above 910. However the waves didn't yet retrace to at least the 38% mark and if this is a subwave (ii), then I kind of expect a brief dip down at least lower than it has gone.

There is no rule on this of course just a hunch and using general wave 2 guidelines the retrace should be a bit deeper. The end of day waves up can be configured for 5 wave moves, its just that they look choppy and corrective which makes them C waves perhaps as I have labeled.

I think after wave (ii) bottoms, the the market should get bullish for another move higher above 907 on up to the 920's.

But Kenny has an excellent count and if 897 proves the bottom of this subwave then his double three is correct.

I like one more hard pullback lower and then bounce for bulls.


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