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Thursday, May 7, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 May




Primary Count: SPX traced a Minute wave [iv]. The 897 low of the previous wave (iv) held so that is a good sign that this count is correct. The channel line held also. So now all it has to do is push one more time in a 5 wave move to close the gap at 929-934.

Any break lower and out of the channel indicates that 929 was likely a near term top and a deeper retrace is occurring. That would imply likely either an X wave or some kind of wave 2 of C pullback is another possibility.

But for now, the channel is holding so we must assume the market has one more push to a new peak in a five wave move. Again 897 is a key support level. Notice how the market stayed 4 points above that mark today as a "cushion". Some buying came in at the 900 mark for sure.

16 comments:

  1. Daneric, thanks from the lurking masses.

    You ended the first paragraph with "It". Are we missing anything?

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  2. Thanks. I fixed it and fixed some charts with more info.

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  3. Thanks Dan. What are your thoughts on the financials? I think they are hard to get a read on because they were so beat up, but do you see them stabilizing and running with the general market? At some point I would think they have to at least stop outperforming the market as a whole since they are or will soon be "fairly valued".

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  4. Thanks so much for your hard work and the great charts. They are so detailed, so thorough that help me learn and they are easy to understand. Your site is a great educational resource.
    I wanted to mention that the ads on your site are appreciated. I have learned some interesting things by clicking on them and reading the info. While I do not remember it, I am told I was conceived in Madrid, so I really enjoyed that one !

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  5. Hi Dan, what are your thoughts that we have traced out a leading diagonal today? The idea came to me as I was looking at an intraday chart for this week and saw that today's action was almost a mirror image of the previous day and a half. It looked like we went up a hill then down the other side of it. If you connect the trendlines today, you can see a falling wedge pattern which would be consistent with a leading diagonal if the market were to fall further from here. Each of the five mini-waves today could arguably be subdivided into three smaller waves.

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  6. Dan, great that you examine the market moves so closely. But may my I suggest that you step back from the screen and have a look at the bigger picture:

    You'll notice that today was a cycle day (it's a 45 day cycle) and that yestereday's close was at 38.2 percent of the March low. I believe that the bulls do not want to get kicked down again so soon. Quite possible, that the small gap up at 936 may remain unfilled for a few more days or weeks.

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  7. approximate values:

    78.6% x [i]: 930
    100 x [i]: 938

    38.2 x [iii]: 933
    50 x [iii]: 942.77
    61.8 x [iii]: 952.5

    38.2 x [i]->[iii]: 937.5
    50 x [i]->[iii]: 948.5
    61.8 x [i]->[iii]: 959.75

    23.6 x A: 943
    38.2 x A: 968.5

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  8. anyone see that ass-kissin shank? yank this , shank.

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  9. Buy UNG vey bullish

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  10. My guess the 5th will be truncated, won't make above 930.

    The reason is very bad QQQQ chart and big spike in volume in many ETFs, especially inverted and such.

    Roxy

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  11. So far so good... Been following several EW'ers and you're at the top of the list.

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  12. I am trying to get to grips with EWT and your charts are a great help.

    If you have time could out help with clarifying one point?

    In the ending diagonal, IMO the (iii) wave is the shortest of (i), (iii) and (v). Is that allowed under EWT rules?

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  13. "IMO the (iii) wave is the shortest of (i), (iii) and (v)" - Bingo!

    929.58 is only "v" alias (iii). But then wave (iv) is likely don't complete /see pattern of wave (ii)/

    H.B.

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  14. Dan: I believe it has been the Financials that have fueled this Rally all along. GS and MS bottomed last Nov 21, 2008 and the BKX joined in on March 6th. Until these financials roll over, there will be no substancial pull back or major decline to SP 700. Can you run an EW analysis on GS for us...it might give us a better view. Thanks

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  15. Looking good DE. Thank you for all your work!

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  16. Just tragic. UYG surpassed FAZ today ....

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