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Wednesday, May 6, 2009

The More Bearish Alternative Count (updated)




As I said in my update tonight, the market is getting very extended. The wave pattern today reminded me of an ending diagonal pattern. Big Wave 1 zig zag push, big wave 2 dip then a choppy zig-zag-ish push toward a wave 3 peak, pullback and a final zig zag push to peak for wave 5 which may come tomorrow morning.

An ending diagonal means pullback. Could it be a subwave ending diagonal in a Minute wave [iii] push or could it be an ending diagonal that marks the *peak* of wave C? and a significant near-term rally top? This I am not sure of.

My "bearish" marker is 897 support. If the market was to plunge beneath 897, I would say some kind of major correction of the entire rally is in order. Pehaps an "X" wave. It could also conceivably be a deep wave [ii] of C or 2 of C.

No one really can know for now.

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