Custom Search

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

The More Bearish Alternative Count (updated)




As I said in my update tonight, the market is getting very extended. The wave pattern today reminded me of an ending diagonal pattern. Big Wave 1 zig zag push, big wave 2 dip then a choppy zig-zag-ish push toward a wave 3 peak, pullback and a final zig zag push to peak for wave 5 which may come tomorrow morning.

An ending diagonal means pullback. Could it be a subwave ending diagonal in a Minute wave [iii] push or could it be an ending diagonal that marks the *peak* of wave C? and a significant near-term rally top? This I am not sure of.

My "bearish" marker is 897 support. If the market was to plunge beneath 897, I would say some kind of major correction of the entire rally is in order. Pehaps an "X" wave. It could also conceivably be a deep wave [ii] of C or 2 of C.

No one really can know for now.

13 comments:

  1. Hi,in term of wave count, it is what I am thinking, but when you see the nasdaq composite, I believe that the market will get higher...NO!!!
    http://rachequityanalysis.blogspot.com/

    I wish you a nice evening.

    Rached

    ReplyDelete
  2. Rached, I respectfully disagree. We got a sell signal on the NDX and COMPQ on Tue which is still intact today. The QQQQs (and IWM) held their ground today for the most part against the rally on DJIA and SPX. We now have a setup for sell signals across all the major indices. I am not saying that WILL happen, I'm just saying that could happen.

    Oh, who am I kidding. I'm not going to pretend to be unbiased like those bubblehead commentators. I clearly am biased. I'm a bear and make no bones about it.

    ReplyDelete
  3. GBT, I think we are getting close to a big bear payday Maybe one last fit up tomorrow and it cannot deal with the January Island top gap.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi GBT, we have sell signal, but I can not find regarding the RSI any overbought signal...There is divergence regarding the ROC but not in a overbought territory...NO!!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. To Dan From Max Cherry
    This is one I've been following not sure if it's correct but I expect a top at 930. adv/dec and up/down vol I follow are not confirming the latest move. I am curious about your long term view, do you see the low of 666 being taken out this year?



    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&st=2009-03-06&id=p22277602175&a=166391089&listNum=12

    ReplyDelete
  6. Could be MAX. I like your wave 1 top. I don't agree with the sluggish wave 3 though

    ReplyDelete
  7. Blessings from above unto thy Spirit
    Now you are on to something, let us get done with the big bear by the OCTOBER of 2009 somewhere in the SPX 420-450 range.
    From there, you may take us up for the rest of 2009 and 2010; thus, the chart may look very green and the Anointed One maintains His administrative rights for a second term, as well as, having the supporting cast in His Royal Court well intact.
    What say you, 'O Oracle One?

    ReplyDelete
  8. i'm thinking january gap gets filled and we go higher in short order...thats the whole point of this bear extinction campaign

    lets see

    ReplyDelete
  9. Think we are at the top of iii. Would like to see this thing ooze into next week, but I'll probably get out of my positions tomorrow. Any new highs for this advance next week could be the place to put some shorts on.

    ReplyDelete
  10. What is/are the typical multiple relation between A,B,C waves? If 925+ is C, wouldn't that be extremely small compared to A?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Minor Wave A peaked at 833...Minor Wave B dropped down to 780. 833-667=166 166 + 780 = 946. Also note the 40 Week EMA is now at 946...1/6/09 High was at 944. September 2001 Low was at 945. A lot of confluence in the mid 940's. The MM's know this so don't be surprised if they tank the market before the mid 940's are reached.

    ReplyDelete
  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anon,
    I thought the prevailing count sequence was that 'A' completed at 840+ (first week of April), and a running triangle 'B' completed at 847 (April 28). If 780 was 'B', then what would one call the pattern painted by C?

    ReplyDelete