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Friday, May 8, 2009

NASDAQ looks peaked




The NASDAQ could gain 30 points on Monday and not make a new high. It counts well from where I have marked the end of the B wave triangle. The index just looks like its hanging out waiting for the DOW and SPX to get their runs over with. It is no longer leading the charge up.



One reason I moved the SPX triangle ending spot the other night is that the spot of the old [e] did not work well with the NASDAQ.


The second chart shows a comparison of the QQQQ's and SPX. The QQQQ's (high beta) was running "hot" and now has pulled back. The pink line is the QQQQ's price performance as compared to the SPX. I don't really have a good conclusion other than its something I noticed.



10 comments:

  1. Thanks Dan. I picked up some puts on the QLD right before the close so I hope you are correct.

    I really appreciate your site and how you are able to keep an open mind about the possibilities. I know that there are people who have posted here about you not taking a stance one way or another, but I think you do a great job giving your best educated guess to where the market is going and then offering alternatives. The truth is none of us know where the market is headed and keeping an open mind always a good thing.

    Unfortunately I lost a lot of money being short from the low 800's on much of this rally because I was convinced that I was "right". But its not about being right, its about making money and I wasn't making money.

    Thankfully I was able to scalp a little bit from this rally this week.

    Keep up the great work.

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  2. Here's a hint for what's around the corner. Go pull up your charts and think April 1.

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  3. maybe not. hochberg just posted and he says we have seen wave five or 1 of 5. I find 1 of 5 hard to believe. I am not finished with it, but it looks like we are close to the end of the C wave

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  4. Hi Daneric,

    First, I want to "second" what SunDevil just wrote. His second and third paragraphs express my sentiments exactly! Especially that YOU DO A GREAT JOB with your chart-work, analysis, comments, and open-mindedness to alternate possibilities (in contrast to certain arrogant, dogmatic types on CNBS who assert only one view...and then don't admit or apologize that they were wrong and have cost their followers big bucks). Anyway, I hope you know that for each critic you have, you have dozens of supporters who greatly value and appreciate you, your work, and your sharing it with us.

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  5. Daneric,

    Here's my question: IF the S&P rises to 937-947 early next week, what do you think the Nasdaq (and Nasdaq 100) are likely to do? Rise in sympathy, be flattish, or even lead down?

    Thanks.

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  6. Eric, I have to agree with you on your bullish sentiment review. One chat room I follow is all bullish with everyone looking for anything to dip so they can buy. Most are concentrating now on the stuff that lagged without realizing that the leaders of this whole rally are now looking toppy.

    I actually nibbled on a fraction of my first FAZ swing position today. It is after all just a put option without expiry and I'll trade it as such. You may want to keep an eye on MBI on Monday and check out its daily chart knowing that they report on Tuesday.

    At the very least for the XLF, it is quickly approaching its 200 day MA and given that we're in the midst of the widest distribution of stock in the history of mankind with a tremendous percentage of that stock underwater, I expect at least a fairly healthy give back very soon.

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  7. SRS I expect the NASDAQ to rise in sympathy and *perhaps* challenge its recent high. I would expect that it stays under its high but you never can say for sure.

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  8. Thanks, Dan.

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  9. Great week DE, really glad I checked out your blog. Have a great weekend. Thank you!

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