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Wednesday, May 6, 2009

A Quick Look at the Daily SPX Chart




The SPX daily looks healthy. I see no negative divergences. Even the ROC broke sharply upwards.

Perhaps the market is getting a bit far ahead of its 50DMA but that will likely catch up when the market decides to put in a near term peak and correct/consolidate some more. How much correction? I really cannot say. This is a unique P2 after a unique P1. There is no very close comparison that I can find anymore.

EDIT: Removed the doubting comment and too much thinking out loud again. LOL. The main point of this post is that the market is not ready to collapse past 666.

The island top gap is coming up. That is an area of big resistance comparable to 865-875.
Overall though, big volume on the cash index. There was some bear chops in today's up move and the NASDAQ looks toppy for now. But does the market look like it will collapse completely back under 666 based on this chart? How can one say that this is some kind of B wave in an Intermediate wave (4)? Everything is going up. RSI, Moneyflow made a new high today, Accum..etc, etc.

Usually you'd think the market will eventually show some negative divergence of some kind in some key areas before it collapses. This chart does not show that. Indeed, the path of least resistance in the longer run seems very much higher. P2 certainly has the ability to surprise to the upside. I still hold my 401K longs. Based on this chart alone, I will hold them some more.

P2 will give clues when it is near over. And a big daily RSI negative divergence would be typical. And obviously we haven't even topped out on the initial RSI runup, so factor in a lot more trading up and down and up before that kind of indication can appear over time.

Weeks. Months.

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