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Friday, May 22, 2009

SPX Weekly



I'm going to start posting the weekly every Friday or on the weekend. I sometimes get asked why I don't show this. I should as I certainly always look at it every week. The weekly does indeed, trump all as Erik http://erikmarketview.blogspot.com/ likes to often say. He is right.


What stands out a bit on this chart are these items: 1) Gravestone-type doji candlestick pattern which is bearish. 2) Lighter volume on the downside the last 2 weeks from peak which is bullish in the long run. 3) RSI trendline just went below 50 which is bearish for next week. 4) For all the people who still email me telling me this is wave 4 in Primary 1 look no further than the RSI or all the lower indicators on this chart. Does any of these appear consistent to be in a P1 still? 5) The "look" of P2 so far appears on the light side. A move down to my (X) and then up to 1000 SPX would be very aesthetically pleasing to the eye for an EW pattern. Sometimes its just that simple. 6) The four lower indicators appear ready to "break" the uptrends in place. That would be a weekly sell signal I suppose.


14 comments:

  1. Daneric...what is the theoretical maximum, based on EW, to how low the X wave could go? Could it hit 740 or 780?

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  2. That's weird, I did some checking on longer timeframes last night. The monthly looks super bullish to me (other than the candlestick....but the month ain't over yet!). Weekly...you're right. Not so much bully bully there.

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  3. Daneric,

    Wonderful analysis and charts,you have a great analytical mind,thanks its very helpful to all.

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  4. Daneric, lighter volume is related to the holiday not more, although institutional buying has been void due to the MMs playing currencies rather than a true directional perspecive (see Cobra's charts). The top has been in for several days. A suggestion is to incorporate the USD currency into your analysis since the MMs certainly live in that realm, this is a currency driven market. For example, the latest top has been currency driven, as a way to trap retail bulls. Analyze.

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  5. Misinterpreted your volume comment before with my holiday comment, I only meant off Friday chart and you were referring to trend. Link to the institutional trend: http://www.stocktiming.com/advanced/adv_fridayupdate.htm

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  6. http://broadcast.ino.com/education/sp_500_17week_cycle/

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  7. Why yes, it could still has the look of P1 that has a sharp spike for 4...in fact it fits the EW channel perfectly...based on GBT+Rob's count.
    Take a look at the chart at: http://spyswings.blogspot.com

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  8. The game has gotten a little more uncertain. The other alternative is P2 is done and we started P3 over a week ago. This is dependent on if they hold the US dollar index above 70, 80 is the big support line but 70 is now the critical neckline after they pulled it from the edge of the abyss last year. The downside target for the H&S forming on the USD index is around 35-40, if it breaks and goes into a multi-month freefall. That would drag all US denominated equity and debt down with it except for critical hard commodities which will see an explosion upwards. So all eyes should be on the USD index and gold at the moment to guage whether this is just a correct drop or the start of the stairstep to He LL.

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  9. Think the message is clear....lower we go. The P2 has topped theory is the most suspicious of all the counts. In any event great charts and analysis DE. You da best

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  10. I hope Dan sees this. I was analyzing Benner's theory and looking up Fib relationships to time. And I found this Fib on timing that was done in 2004. It starts with year 1877 as it was a secular low year. If you add +55 and then do a .382 tracement you will find years 1932(+55), 1966 (+34), 1987(+21), 2000 (+13), 2008 (+8). All these years mentioned marked some sort of financial peak or panic. And following the sequence, the next year should be 2013 if a .618 or 2011 of a .382 is used. And by looking at the
    Benner graph that was adapted in EW, 2010 should be a major peak and 2011 should be significant low.

    I am trying to put all of this together and the most logical conclusion is that P2 will end in 2010 making a major peak and sometime in 2010 or 2011 P3 will start and make some a signicant low in 2011 or alternatively 2011 will mark the some sort of major event that will change the financial market.

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  11. The counts might merge together in the future. I have P1 ending this year and P2 ending sometime next year followed by P3 ending in 2011 or 2012 as you have. Still too early to tell, and no I am not totally discounting DE/Kenny's P2...just that I favor still in P1 but I will hop on the P2 train when I clearly see it the correct count.

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  12. Those people e-mailing you about wave 4 must stop. This is stupid and annoing.

    Roxy

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  13. Alternatively, 2013 (using the next number in the sequence on my previous post) could be the end of P5 which would make a lot of sense too since that would fit the time frame for P1 being 17 months long that started in October 2007. Other years that keeps popping up are 2018 and 2021, which would make sense if 2018 is a high and 2021 is another low which coincides with Fin relationships to prior peaks and lows AND the Benner table.

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  14. To my eye it appears if the "X" completes, it forms the 2nd shoulder of a 7 mo. inverted h&s with a neckline at 887.

    If so, the ultimate P2 target becomes 1108.

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