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Friday, May 22, 2009

Tracking Sentiment

A huge part of Elliott Waves is tracking sentiment readings. As a member of EWI, they provide good stuff usually in their updates to info that I do not always readily have access to. Regardless I do use Stockcharts.com $BPSPX, or bullish percent indicator as one thing I glance at every day.

One thing I have noticed is that this indicator likes to form these little double peaks. Another thing I noticed is that once it goes above 70RSI and then eventually corrects downward, the RSI keeps heading below 50 at least , as a minimum. You can look for yourself over the past many years. Currently under 50 hasn't happened yet but seems to be heading that way.

So this is one reason why I think this market has further to correct, at least in time, if not in price. This correction does not mean prices will drop substantially, as you saw in April the market moved sideways for three weeks in price yet was considered a running triangle B wave.

But usually I think some kind of price correction is required to keep the bearishness heading down. A dip below 875 might do that. But the market could trade sideways in a complicated double three correction for a bit and this could drop appropriately. Then when the double three is over, BAM, another ABC move up of Intermediate size, probably to 1000 SPX.

Of course this indicator can bounce around the top for a while, however I think its too late for that as the RSI seems to be headed to that 50 and below marker.

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