Custom Search

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Triangulating.



A lot of trading occurred in the e-minis since Friday. If you were to chart the e-minis, all hours, you'd almost have to chart them as I have them above. They show triangle action going on. At least for the time being.
The 5 wave move down from 923.5 (924.6 SPX) looks very clear on the cash index but on the emini-s its a 5-3-5 zig zag (5 minute chart) with a classic ending diagonal move (every "three" is in there and no rules are violated). And that would fit a triangle pattern. Also as the C wave, it is rather complicated-looking (at least the last few days of off hours trading) which can be typical for a C wave in a triangle.
I cannot say this will play out and be the entire Intermediate (X) wave corrective pattern, but I wouldn't be doing you any justice if I did not show you this pattern. For at the moment, the rules of a triangle can be counted to be there, at least on the e-minis, all hours.
As a side note, the NASDAQ made a new low taking out last Thursday's low. The SPX and DOW did not. What does this all mean? It means use all means available to help determine the wave patterns.
Well the volume today was less than last Thursday and Wednesday red down days. But still an impressive rally back to 912 nonetheless.
Look for a sideways to down day tomorrow and then heading up to the triangle trendline at "D". and then a move back to E. These should be all zig zags of course from point to point.

11 comments:

  1. Again the market future push the market to around 915-920(D), then slowly move lower to point E tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dan, per your analysis last week dated May 20th, your chart told you a bullish push for SPX to 930. Asia closed today generally very strong today. Do you see that U.S. market continuously on the up trend to between 920 to 930 in the next 2 days? There is a lot of money on the side line still. The surprised strong reading on the consumer confidence today very likely encouraging those many who fear missing the boat if the market is going up further to 1040. No doubt the chart is an important tool to help us trading and predict the future, but today's market is very much driven by news. Any little good news fuels the rally because general Americans are tired of bad news especially hearing it over the last 18 months when market down from over 10,000 to 6600. We need a pull back and re start higher for sure to form and establish a very healthy market. Do you see we get to 930 first before pull back? If Obama accepts GM's restructuring plan on June 1st can surprise the market for a huge rally as well. Anything is possible. We stand a 50/50 both direction, do we?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Continuously the news will be driving the market:
    http://apnews.excite.com/article/20090527/D98EBRAG0.html

    ReplyDelete
  4. This "analysis" is a joke....u can draw triangles, squares, octagons, parallelograms...it's all bullsh!t !! Mandy can u tell me what GM's restructuring has to do with technical analysis?? Didn't think so...let's see " i think the mkt might go up tomorrow or perhaps trade in a sideways, consolidative pattern...volumes r light...lotta cash on sidelines...maybe some over head resistance...yeah that's the ticket......let's try lakers/nuggets.....

    ReplyDelete
  5. Daneric,

    Google Blogger won't let me post the links, but over on Yahoo today 90% of economists surveyed say the recession will be over by the end of this year -- and that includes Roubini!

    Does this news change your opinion about P3 and P5? Do you think it's possible that at most we retest 750-800, and then slowly start a weak bull market in late 2009?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Daneric,

    I don't know why, but now I can paste the link:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Survey-Most-economists-see-apf-15357811.html?sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

    ReplyDelete
  7. And here's the link about Roubini seeing the recovery starting in late 2009:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/254886/Even-Roubini-Now-Sees-Green-Shoots!?tickers=^gspc,^dji,^ixic

    ReplyDelete
  8. And how many of these people saw the recession coming in 2007?

    ReplyDelete
  9. I can't see this being over for years (much like Japan) an aging population trying to retire with increasing taxes is not a good recipe for growth. My view is many false starts lasting years with the S&P ending at around 200
    Max Cherry

    ReplyDelete
  10. SRS Player, I can only hope a plurality of "economists" (LOL) will say the bottom is in. That means it Ain't!


    They are human. They see and feel the sentiment change and are a part of it.

    Roubini may just trying to ease up so he still gets gigs.

    ReplyDelete