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Thursday, May 28, 2009

X Wave Flat Scenario


There appeared to be yet again a clear 5 wave impulse move down yesterday. And once again that is a good EW "marker" for us to propose some possible patterns to play off of that.

I have charted one such pattern on the 5 minute chart. Its a 3-3-5 X wave scenario. X waves are usually zig zags which means that yesterday's 913 peak *might* have been the X wave peak. That would mean the intraday 5 wave move down yesterday is part of some larger 5 wave move and perhaps a very large 5-3-5 zig zag down that crashes through 878 support. That could still very well be the case.

However the larger pattern appears to be a "bullish" triangle and if the bulls buy the 880 spot one more time that very spot is going to appear to be the "E" wave spot. So I propose that perhaps this FALSE E wave bounce will result in one last rise in the form of an X wave 3-3-5 flat. It hits resistance one last time on weak market internals and then reverses hard for good and eventually crashes through 878 support on the Blue Y leg down.
One last note: Notice how the legs down in the recent market action are CLEAR 5 wave impulse patterns down much more so than on the upside moves which are more confused looking. Maybe thats a clue also in that the market really wants lower prices under 878 support, at least for a while.

4 comments:

  1. Hi,
    what do you think of oil. here is my take on crude oil -

    http://sahilkaps.blogspot.com/2009/05/elliott-wave-analysis-crude-oil-nearing.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. So...3 down to ~880, 3 up to ~912, 5 down hard breaking 870's bottom support.

    You're right...a LOT of bulls will be looking to buy around 880 expecting to blow out the upper end. It's a good setup for institutions to book some cash.

    If I could be by the computer all day, I'd love to play the whole thing. But don't get to do that very often. ;^)

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  3. Oooops...can't edit.

    What I meant to say is...the 3 down to the base is what they'll focus on, then that impulse up... They will get excited, for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Wow. Looks like you nailed it today.

    ReplyDelete