Custom Search

Friday, June 19, 2009

E-minis volume levels

Some simple stuff here but worth pointing out: Look at the volume bars I have in the middle of the chart. The last 2 green up days were lower volume than the 3 down days previous.

Granted this is e-minis and not the cash index but its a good indicator since today's quad witching day brought out more SPX volume. So the e-minis may be a good sentiment indicator for the past few days. And its shows that there are (were) more sellers than buyers for the moment. That is bearish for the short term. And today was even less than yesterday. These last 2 days are textbook low volume patterns of a corrective move back up which signals that buyers aren't yet interested in buying at these prices.


  1. Market will gap up on Monday

  2. There will be an accumlation day on Monday.
    So shorts will get kill.

  3. Money Bull cover

  4. Market activity should be based on Eurodollar futures:

    It's all about the interest rates.

  5. SPX to 1050, and top of p2

    Chart and post:

    I will appreciate your comments, I want to learn, 'coz you may see it diff. than how I am looking at it.

  6. DJ!

    Great minds think alike! Even the exact same thoughts at exactly the same moment!

    ONE MINUTE before you posted the chart and comments that you give the link to above, I posted here on Dan's site (on the previous thread) my sense that the current correction may bottom around 850, then P2 may peak around 1060 (in October/November of 2009, I think).

    Whether or not your and my sense of P2 is correct, time will tell. But it's FUN that we both posted the same prediction of the future at the very same moment in time. VERY COOL!

  7. DJ,

    I should be more precise: I'm thinking this correction will decline to at least 875, with potential to go to 850.


  8. Dan, great work! and Thanks.

    SRS and DJ,

    Hate to copy what you have said as well. I have the same feeling and targets. However, I feel like we will get a good bounce out of 875-880 areas first. And this thing can drag on for another month. Nothing will come easy for both bears and bulls at this point.

    Experience tell me that we will need to consolidate a while between 900-950 for a while before breaking out for the final run to 1000-1100. But that is my target as well.

    May play a little long when we get to 850, but that will be it. Imo, just too dangerous to play long. Are you still holding your SRS? It has been difficult. I wonder if it will ever get back to 30... before P3 begins.

    I have been looking at some short index ETFs. Seem like if we are going to test some major supports, QID (double inverse of QQQQ) should give the best risk and reward, as compare to SDS and TWM. If you consider an exit at new indices high (risk) or at the major support in May (SPX at 875...etc). Take a look and see what you think.


  9. Be careful, the NAZ look very strong... and it is the only problem S&P will not drop to 850

  10. Neil,

    I agree that Naz has been the strongest. But it has also been the one that went up most. So when a correction comes, nothing is spare, and the one that goes up most will come down most, in percentage. However, if the exit strategy is either index breaking new high (because I think if they will all move in tandem), then playing QID will have the least risk and best reward. Target is major QQQQ support at 33 established in May.

    Obviously, if wrong, I will get stopped out pretty soon at 37, and QQQQ is not exactly nasdaq.


  11. Market will hold on before Fed rate decision... so i wont bet the market drop too much.

  12. I will not read too much into that the Chart posted by DJ, since the market will never give what you are looking for. Remember we are still in P2, there's always upside surprise.

  13. what do you expect from market tomorrow ?

  14. Hi Pang,

    Thanks for your note about QID. I will take a look at QID versus the other inverse ETFs.

    I sold my SRS in April. Finally gave up on waiting for a big pullback in P2, and started playing P2 long.

    I probably should have changed my name when I stopped playing SRS, but I figured people have gotten to know me as SRS Player, and I'll probably be playing SRS again when P3 arrives.

    Good luck in your trading.

  15. The resistance tomorrow will be 928. Basically we have a 5 wave going down right now and currently on sub wave 2 that might have peaked at 923. If 928 gets violated tomorrow then this 5 wave structure is out. But if that holds then expect wave 3 to take us down to at least 910. So tomorrow we should open flat and head down or gap down until 905-910 and then bounce. I don't think it will gap up above 928.

  16. thks much Rick that's very clear

  17. Hi,
    Thanks Deneric
    Spx close below 935 (921.23)=(+2.86)
    Nothing new spx close below 928 and 935

    Below 935 I expect [880,893] very short term.
    Below 957 I expect [790,820] medium term.
    If spx close hourly above 928 I have to reduce some short.

    Tomorrow suport Hourly 915. Bear will try to break 915 and change again MACD hourly.
    Sentiment - Vix close below last monday open when spx open below 935. This is bearish to market.
    Chart daily and hourly other analysis:

  18. This might be early but sub wave 3 has apparently ended at 894. I went long at 895 and only covering my short positions started at wave 1 when 880 is reached (if it comes). Technically we should see at least 905 for wave 4.

  19. thks Rick you had a great call. I went short this am when overnights were up and covered as well my short. Hesitating to go long

  20. Thanks, got lucky I guess by identifying wave 1 on Friday. I went short at 926. I think we might get into the 880's at the end of wave 5. Then there should be a good bounce ABC bounce.