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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Elliott Wave Update - 10 June



EDIT 4:30 pm: e-minis just got whacked a bit. (EDIT 2: Thanks Bt888 in comments for the explanation on why) You know I'll be honest, this is a very dangerous market - if ever a triangle was going to fail and fail miserably, it would be a P2 trying to push for a new top after a 3 month rally - it takes balls to play this market to the upside at this stage. However I respect triangles. Buying the [e] wave low was easy. However, hanging on and expecting a bull move breakout up after the intial Fib bounce is what takes moxy and I don't have that kind of mad trading skills. So be careful out there. I can only map what I see and make logical guesses.

Fakeout move up today ensured a very bearish reversal yet it traced a very obvious (yet nasty) 5-3-5 zigzag down. In fact the (c) leg pretty much equalled the (a) leg for a 1:1 ratio which is common for a zigzag. I bet you all were counting off the waves and bought the [e] like I suggested yesterday. How many thought 926.44 was going to break and that the new trend was down and that the triangle was all just a bunch of bunk? [e] waves can look like hard impulse down.


The waves say a breakout move above 950 is coming tomorrow (or Friday). The triangle has traced long and wide. I count it as complete. Now its up to the market to comply.

28 comments:

  1. dan i think you've nailed the short term count. i still don't think p3 is so close (should be this yr however), though i'll give you major props for these recent calls. good work

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  2. Great work Dan!
    962 is my target tomorrow.

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  3. My target for Friday is 971.

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  4. good follow up re: futures. kenny's ED count is my alt and very valid still if you ask me. i can actually see 5 minor waves of a large (A) or a large 5-3-5 ending sometime this week if it's an ED or defunct triangle. thanks for reminding your folks to always be dynamic

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  5. Thanks DE. I'm thinking we got some statement painting and waiting on the Fed meeting later this month. Market churns till then. On sidelines waiting in cash. willing to play it either way. Thanks for all you do. Posts are tremendous and always on the $$.

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  6. hi dan, i aprecciate a lot your work every day i see your counts, im also alliotician u have done a remarkable work.

    i agree very much with your present count, but i would like to know whats the probability u give to the count that the sp500 have done the top??? for example since 951 the sp500 have done a 1,2 , i,ii??

    regards and keep up the good the work

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  7. Braulio if 927 fails to the downside, I'll be exploring those kinds of counts...

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  8. Just to confirm, Dan...

    If the triangle confirms a breakout tomorrow with a 5 wave impulse, am I correct in assuming the eventual peak of the 5th wave will be labelled "1 of C (Y)" ?

    In other words, a bullish larger degree pattern should trace?

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  9. oops...that was me...fuzzier_joe...on last post.

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  10. Yes Fuzzy, it would be [i] of C of (Y).

    I think I have my chart lables wrong at end of day

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  11. Tremendous amount of resistance at 950. I think the rally is getting tired and if 950 breaks, it doesn't seen like it will go much higher. I was long until 9:45am this morning and then went short and now I am completely out. I think think entry points should be 928 with a tight stop for the long side and any roll over on the 5 minute macd over 950 for shorts.

    Either way this is a tradable market but too dangerous to be long or short at this particular point. I think DE count is correct and hopefully we won't ge any surprises.

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  12. Dan Why can't this huge rally be a Primary B wave which could be retracing A wave from 1576??

    If we label 1576 as V Primary ending a huge Bull market, then we may be doing a gigantic ABC Bear correction type.

    If A took 17 months B can easily take 6 months which is 38.2% Time Fibo. In this case the next leg down wouldn't kick off before September.

    BTW, great work!

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  13. Dan what's wrong with this analysis??

    http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/151/72215127.png

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  14. TTO, I have the top of Supercycle wave 5 topping in 2000 not 2007. That makes this a cycle c wave down.

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  15. EWI's short term forecast agrees w/your position.

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  16. Awesome work! Thank you....

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  17. Dan, nice call!

    Assuming a breakout tomorrow or Friday and assuming the maximum height of the triangle (Wave a - b) is 27.84, my estimated Wave v range should be between 955.81 and 977.22 (depends how you measure the target). Pretty darn close to 999! What do you think?

    Richard

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  18. Nice job DE. Personally I'm playing the expected up move in a very limited way. If this count is correct I will be glad to get short near the top.

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  19. Richard it could be. Its a weak market no doubt.

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  20. Thanks so much Dan. Do you know the DSI for today? Is it getting close to 90 yet?

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  21. Thank you for the analysis, Dan. Great call.
    Re: The futures. The June contract is expiring next week and they are changing to September. TOS started quoting the September which trades at a significant discount to June. (June 943.75 vs September 939.25).

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  22. Ahh thanks for that explanation bt888! It did look weird.

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  23. If you click the prophet charts tab you can access the normal (June) contract. Symbol: @ESM09

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  24. nice work dan. nailed the E.
    please use these boxes in future. i think within a box you and kenny are almost right each time, of course when you both agree with each other. since market can only go one way on a certain day and only one can be right when you both on opposite side of your view for that day.
    thanks
    linus

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  25. >>> since market can only go one way on a certain day and only one can be right when you both on opposite side of your view

    Not if the box is large enough.

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  26. Dan, You are absolutely the best! Thanks for all the hard work you do for us.

    For people who feel the way I do....Please vote for Dan's charts at: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3271025

    Best Wishes,
    Cindy

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