That was a very nice wave structure up today. It was nicely complete and the subwaves even had impulse 5 wave structures. All in all the market is setup perfectly for a power wave [iii] to head through 950 and this time hold it and propel higher.
A 28 point wave [i] is a very nice and if wave [iii] is 1.618 x 29 = 46 point wave [iii]. If the market started wave [iii] at today's late day low of 943, then your looking at 943 + 46 = 990 to the top of wave [iii]. Not saying that's how its all going to shake out but I wanted to show you how I calculate some basic wave relationships.
The alternate count is that today was the top. That means that EWI's count is correct and this was not a B wave triangle but a 4th wave triangle. Since the market traced 5 clear waves with a deep retrace (which can only be a wave [ii]) so by their count it is all over at 956 and some change and a significant decline is coming.
As I heard Kenny mention, well, if the market traced a long 7 day triangle just to make a move to 956, then that's kind of lame. At any rate its a valid alternate count.
We'll know tomorrow what the market wants to do. If its a wave [iii], then it should be nearly ready to move higher. There really cannot be much delay and a wave [iii] will be easy to spot.
Ok lets see what happens tomorrow! It makes sense we move higher. This would stretch the bullishness to a new level and that would seem appropriate for a P2 peak. I would be sorely disappointed if we did not, 6-7 days triangles are not easy to map so I want a nice new rally high to compensate for my troubles. Let bullishness run its course. Then reality will rear its ugly head.
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I think we will move higher eventhough EWI's possibility is fine by me too.
ReplyDeleteDan, when I was reading your and Kenny's site yesterday, all I could think of was: "Bulls, Bears, Elliotticians, Cramer and the media - are all on the same page, predicting the same exact thing." Yes, you differ on what happens after, but in the near term, everyone is calling for a push higher. And I thought...something doesn't feel right about that. Is everyone right this time? Sure enough...today's feeble attempt at new highs got sold off, when GS or JPM could have easily spiked SPY at end of day....which leads me to believe, maybe everyone isn't going to be right on this move. :)
ReplyDeleteSome sentiment indicators like Zweig and McClellan are showing bearishness. $SPC:$CPC (60 min) is also bearish. I expect another drop, not huge because we are in a BULL market....AREN'T WE?
ReplyDeleteLOL
the market has rollover today. Tick is at 604.
ReplyDeleteIts a hard to give room for a Wave III up tomorrow unless all overseas market push hard to the upside. I see tomorrow will be a Sell the rally kind of day.
William wave 2's normally retrace 45-62% at least and make you doubt the previous move. This one is not even 50%
ReplyDeleteIn either case, the market will get resolved soon enough.
Brilliant work on this. Now you set the bar too high for yourself though :)
ReplyDeleteDan, if the market breaks below 935 (78.6% retrace) tomorrow, there is a higher chance that the EWI count is correct. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteRichard
Keep in mind that wave 2 *could* retrace almost all of wave 1 without violating the count.
ReplyDeleteDan, Take a look at NYSE McClellan Oscillator Chart and you would see that Trend is about to change. Is the trend changing tomorrow or next week. We would find out soon.
ReplyDeletesummit do you have a link for that chart
ReplyDeletesorry Dan, the top is in. you expected another push down in march, didn't happen. now you expect another push up, not happening. but nevertheless great work. thanks a lot
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone pay attention to the SPX Bullish Percent Index?
ReplyDeletegdlutz, here is the link (This chart is put together by someone else who I follow really close)
ReplyDeletehttp://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9063584
trader, I do follow it sometime but I'm not sure how accurate is that. If we look at the chart and look at the trend
ReplyDeleteSEP08 - NOV08 -- SP down 300+ pts
JAN09 - Mar09 -- SP down 250+ pts
Jun09 - Aug09 -- SP could be 200+ pts
LOL
de, did you buy the e and are you still in? i had spy june calls had a double and got shook out eod, i did not like that goog and aapl were not participating in rally today, and jumped ship before close, should have booked my profits at end of 5th but still wet behind the ears with ew, been following you since end of march , thanks for the clarity each day.
ReplyDeletei had june 99 calls , gave it all back in wave 2
ReplyDeletethis real time ew is a biatch.
ReplyDeleteOne possibility. http://tinyurl.com/kww9t8
ReplyDeleteDan you said:
ReplyDeleteDaneric said...
William wave 2's normally retrace 45-62% at least and make you doubt the previous move. This one is not even 50%
In either case, the market will get resolved soon enough."
So isn't the target for P2 too short? Shouldn't P2 make the bears doubt on their count?
That would put us easily above 1200 pts on S&P
I would like to hear your thoughts on this...
Thanks
Boys and Girls! Realize that the market is OVERBOUGHT! It has been quite for some time. The SPX Daily Bullish Percent Chart is ready to tumble... www.mbewtrader.blogspot.com
ReplyDeleteDan, your Wave III is coming.
ReplyDeleteI think the market is heading to new high from here. Dan you are the man of the week.
ReplyDeleteI hope your Wave III will hold and push to 989
ReplyDeleteShow me the power of Wave III
ReplyDeleteOne big bullish engulf is all the market needs
ReplyDeleteOk now I see the power of 3
ReplyDeleteI'll believe this a Wave III only if S&P close above 950 .
ReplyDeleteWave III EWI Controlled selling all day everyday.
ReplyDeleteHey Dan Great charts and thanks for all you do.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: if we peaked at 956 on the SPX would you still say P2 is over?
I think the chart you posted back in April is more likely to play out with P2 ending in Jan 2010.
Thanks.