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Monday, June 22, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 June




I expected today to be a down day and it did not disappoint. The move next is the hard part in this count.

There are several ongoing possibilities:

1) A Minor ABC 5-3-5 zigzag has traced (or almost finished) from 956 high for an (X) wave low meaning the market will reverse and head to new highs.

2) A Minute [a][b][c] zizgag has traced out either a Minor A or Minor X wave from 956 peak and the market will rebound to either 928 or back toward 950 and continue a corrective move for the next several weeks . After the correction, the market breaks higher in a final zigzag move to P2 peak.

3) This is just the middle of a nasty Minor wave 3 lower and after a slight dead cat bounce tomorrow (a pause), the market heads down much lower in the coming days.

I do not favor option 3) but I must mention it and by no means can it be ruled out. I favor option 2) in that the market will bounce (perhaps a new low will finish tomorrow early) back toward at least 928 in the coming days. How bullish a bounce I am not sure.

As far as degree labels, my 30 minute chart looks correct and it is different from my 1 and 5 minute charts as far as degree labels. Overall I suspect a bounce is coming (maybe tomorrow has one more lower move coming early). The 50 and 200 DMA will cross in a bullish manner (even though the 200DMA is still sloping down) and its the first time thats happened since Sep 2006.

3 comments:

  1. Dan,

    thks a lot for your great comments
    how would you play tomorrow morning ? start short and wait 880 to go long or would you be long at the beginning ?

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  2. Hi Dan,

    I'm a newbie to EW. I understand the basic 5-wave pattern, & the corrective ABC wave...now there's a W-X-Y-Z wave & I'm totally clueless about these type of waves. I tried searching on google, but I can't seem to find any info on these type of waves. Can you point me in the right direction ? Thanks.

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  3. Read Elliott Wave Principle by Frost/Prechter. Thats all you need. Its really just a form of an ABC move.

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