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Friday, June 26, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 June (Updated 27June)


UPDATE (SAT 11:30): I made a new post on the NASDAQ and it appears the market is indeed about done with this corrective move up. So the SPX 1 munte I have here likely has the last set of moves up mapped wrong. I think Nate's ending diagonal works well. 922 could very well be the high or very near so. We'll know early Monday of course.

Well today dipped early, not as low as I had thought it might (but close) and then rebounded. But not as high as I speculated to 930+. However the SPX did achieve a new afternoon high. The DOW is diverging. Its a problem for the market. The DOW still has yet to have its "golden cross" moment, although it too cannot be stopped from happening. Its just going to take a bit longer.


What will Monday bring? Well the VIX again closed under its BB as Kenny pointed out (and EWI). I guess a fear bounce is due of some kind. Any market decline will of course depend on how much sellers outweigh buyers (duh!). My point being it does not mean the SPX will collapse 50 points from here (but of course it could).


So Monday is unclear. Overall I am looking for an [a] wave peak (922 today may have been it if stocks take a dump Monday) and then a [b] wave pullback. So the market could push early for an [a] wave peak and then reverse hard on a [b] wave pullback. How far back I am not sure.


If 922 was the [a] wave peak, then perhaps Monday opens bearish and heads down in a [b] wave retrace back down. If a 50% retrace back toward 888 occured from 922, your looking at roughly 905 area. If the market peaks at 934 Monday and a 50% retrace occurs then its back down to 912 or so.


My 1 minute chart has the market in a Monday bullish configuration. I'll have more this weekend, got to look at some more stuff.

5 comments:

  1. dan, good analysis of the bull scenario. i told you a bit ago i was liking the 3-3-5 prospects, but of my current indicators and trusted analysts, you're the only that's bullish right now. because of that, it'll be my alt. will be watching the wave form of the move down very closely unless we just gap down 30 points and the whole thing is moot

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  2. I certainly wouldn't say I'm bullish, just that I can see a possibilty that the market holds above 890.

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  3. Dan, just wanted to say thanks for all the time you put into your charts and comments. I am just starting to learn EW and TA and when I start listening better and making some money, you are definitely in line for a donation.

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  4. Dan

    Thanks for the great charts and comments!

    Just wondering whehter Kenny's count (posted on thursday) having X or B topping at 920 or 922 is out of the window. I see both yours and his count still in play... Am I correct? Or do we have to wait for the either corrective (x) or Y leg to play out to get the true picture.

    Got stuck with the shorts that loaded in 930s.. Too late to bail.

    But in any case, we should get a down move soon.

    thanks
    yat

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  5. Derrick look at my new post on the NADDAQ. I think the market is ready to pull back. 922 was probably the high or close to it.

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