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Friday, June 5, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 June


The bulls jumped the gun on the assault on 950. The MM's used the occasion to close the gap that existed. Then hard reversal and close the gap up. Then the rest of the day, a lot of rope-a-doping. They look like triangle waves.

The market is trying to position itself for a move over 950. The first was rejected a few days ago and a bearish retrace occurred. It appeared after moving off the 923 low, it was on its way to making a move and then just got stupid on today's opening which was the MM's closing the upper gap. Bears smacked it down hard yet there was no intense selling. Support at 934 held.

So the rest of the day appears "triangularish". In either case, Monday should resolve the B wave end point. I have the primary count labeled as a "double three" corrective with a potential triangle in the final [y] wave position.

If prices hold in this triangle pattern, I am looking for that bull move over 950.

Unfortunately this is one of those times where my top alternate count (3-3-5 flat off the 949 peak from a few days ago) is just a bit opposite my Primary count. I don't like when that happens but the alternate count back down to at least 923 is the result of negative divergence on the 30 and 60 minute charts. And in any event, my overall "count" remains the same. Both are searching for an orthodox Minor B wave end of a final Minor wave sized ABC move to peak post-(X) wave triangle breakout at 887.

However, prices wanted to maintain near 940 today and a bearish retrace will ultimately hurt the max price potential of P2 at this stage. So even though another move down to 923 makes a lot of sense wave-wise and TA-wise, we'll just have to wait and see how futures and such and Monday's opening plays out. This would be easier if I gave an update on Monday morning at around 9:25 am, but alas, its just after close on Friday.

Bottom line appears to be this: The SPX is knocking under the 950 hardcap resistance. Its knocking on the door. Can the bears keep him out? Place your bets.

My "thesis" is that breaking 950 will happen and trigger a final shift in market sentiment to ultimate bullishness (with the daily DSI over 90+) , and it makes sense for P2 to do that very soon.

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