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Monday, June 8, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 June






Minor B wave triangle? That's what it looks like. A Minor Blue B wave triangle in the last ABC to P2 peak. Triangles allow higher prices to be maintained and the RSI to work itself out and excess bullishness to be worked out. We have seen numerous ones in the rally from 666. We had a strong upward running triangle in April. The classic contracting triangle between 878 and 930 and now it appears another running triangle is forming just under 950 resistance.

The A wave move up was 62 points. If a final 5 wave move to P2 peak launched from say, 934 tomorrow, and C=A, then the upper target is just about 1000 SPX. (934+62=996).

I always respect the power of triangles. Rarely do they outright fail.

No reason to back off my primary count just yet. You can see by the end of day spike that this market still wants to go up and shorts will be the rocket fuel that gets it over 950.

19 comments:

  1. Another running triangle!

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  2. Keep squeezing the shorts until 1000.
    What a nice job economist!

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  3. This last move will be fast and furious.
    But I have a bad feeling after this last trip to 1000 beacuase of the gap lower.

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  4. Re: Kass
    No worry my friend. P3 actually come sooner than I expect.

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  5. i agree with dr doom. 950-960 tops
    great work dan. thank you

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  6. It was a risk at the time, but thought today's price movement had a declining wedge look about it.

    Shorts got drawn in pre-noon seeing "impulse down" and if this contracting B is what's happening, they're gonna help fuel the coming C.

    fuzzier_joe

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  7. Nice chart Dan.
    I think the C wave up will be extended as impulsive to around 1100

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  8. Dan...

    Do you have any concern with the relative size (price and time) of the proferred BKX 4th wave (of financial's supposedly still being in P1) ?

    Is it possible financials have also been in P2 ?

    fuzzier_joe

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  9. Outsider, all I can say for now is taht it will all work itself out.

    Financials topped early 2007, so they are in a different track so to speak

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  10. Thanks...

    Hate that posting makes me show up like that ("theOutsider"), but I suppose it cuts down on the rif-raf. It's the same guy who bought you a couple dinners...LOL

    fuzzier_joe

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  11. Dan, if this is P2, what is your Target for P3??

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  12. dan, i'm pretty sure you and kenny have been in touch about discrepencies in count, but i also did a full count and indicator re-evaluation this wknd and I see way too much resistance in the way of us getting over maybe 960 tops. the vol today was impressive (a la the ppt/banks) but that's about it for me. i think labeling of intermediates is being done too quickly - i am now on the boat expecting a hard hard pullback and p2 to run closer to a 50% retrace through near fall. I still don’t think we’d have p3 power, even if we run up quickly now to 1000 and being as overbullish as ever. We do have major corrective power though. that said, appreciate the work

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  13. JohnnyBlue, the waves are painting a top here and now.

    Yeah hard to believe, but thats what its doing.

    (X) wave triangle means the final ABC move higher is playing out.

    If 950 is banged on thru and holds, you can believe that 960 is gonna get taken out too with 1000 in their sites. Might end short at 996....

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  14. The only way the market break 960 is keep squeezing the shorts just like Today(economist news), tomorrow may be some news from china...bababa

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  15. The time is what concerns me also but otherwise it all fits. BTW good job over the weekend, i know you got some flack.

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  16. The triangle says we move higher. Some complain that we can't move above 950-60, but thats a little childish.

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  17. It is obviously very hard to predict day to day market movements. But I would say if the market opens above 940 and doesn't go below the FIb retracement from 946 that it will slice thru 950 like butter. I see the late impulse from 930 to 946 as an primary impulse wave.

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